The Washington Commanders (0-1) and Dallas Cowboys (0-1) will square off in Week 2 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread (Cowboys -4.5), with the over/under set at 50.5. Dallas is listed as a -205 moneyline favorite while Washington is a +172 underdog.
Let's get into my Commanders vs Cowboys predictions and NFL Week 2 picks for Sunday, September 20.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction
- Commanders vs Cowboys pick: Over 50.5
My Commanders vs Cowboys best bet is on game totals, with the best price currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Commanders vs Cowboys Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -120 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +172 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -102 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
Commanders vs Cowboys NFL Week 2 Preview
Washington Commanders Betting Preview
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense will have a much easier task this week than they did a week ago in Philadelphia.
The Dallas defense struggled badly to get off the field on third downs, allowing a league-high 81% conversion rate to the Giants.
The Cowboys have also consistently failed to contain quarterbacks in the running game when facing athleticism at the position. This defense ranked 30th in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed to opposing signal callers, and that trend continued last week when Jaxson Dart rushed for 54 yards.
Daniels will be able to move the chains with his legs when needed, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see offensive coordinator David Blough design some more rushes for Daniels in a game the Commanders desperately want to avoid a winless start.
Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
The Cowboys turned in one of the most disappointing performances of Week 1. However, they find themselves in a spot they have performed extremely well during the Dak Prescott tenure.
Over the last 10 seasons, Dallas has covered the number as a home favorite in divisional games at an 80.9% rate. Prescott's statistical splits are also indicative of a player who is more efficient when playing at AT&T Stadium — he averaged more than 300 passing yards per game when playing at home in 2025, throwing 15 touchdown passes to just 4 interceptions.
Prescott has shredded Dan Quinn-led defenses in his career, averaging 38 points per game in three matchups.
One specific concern for the Commanders — that will be a constant thread throughout their season this year — will be their lack of ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks with their front four. In Week 1 against Philadelphia, the Commanders had to bring extra defenders to try and get pressure on Jalen Hurts.
Washington blitzed nearly 40% of the time in passing situations. Whenever it did not blitz, its 22% pressure rate ranked 28th in the league. When rushers failed to get home and bother Hurts inside the pocket, he carved up the Commanders' secondary to the tune of 187 yards and two touchdowns on 11 yards per attempt.
Prescott projects extremely well for this matchup precisely because the Commanders will have to allocate an extra defender in the pass rush. This will translate to more one-on-one matchups for the Cowboys’ receivers.
In addition to having two of the game’s best in single-coverage situations, in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Prescott has been excellent versus the blitz.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, over the past five seasons Prescott has completed a league-high 68% of his throws against the blitz with 33 touchdowns to 8 interceptions.
I expect a bounce-back performance from a Cowboys offense in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Cowboys defense will be improved in 2026, but their performance under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker left a lot to be desired last week. It may take some time for things to gel schematically before they can reach the league-average mark this team needs to become a true contender.
For now, I am handicapping the Cowboys closer to a slightly better version of their 2025 variety.
Inside AT&T Stadium a season ago, games averaged 60.2 points per game. Given the deficiencies of both defenses, I am thrilled to play the over at any number at or below the key number of 51.
A 27-24 type game seems like a modest prediction. I expect one or both teams to reach 31+ points scored.
Pick: Over 50.5
Spread
I will not be betting on the spread line.
Moneyline
I'm also staying away from either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I expect a high-scoring game at AT&T Stadium. I'm taking the Over.
My Pick: Over 50.5 (BetMGM)
