5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Bills vs. Bengals, Including Joe Burrow, Josh Allen
Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
The five most valuable props for perhaps the NFL season’s biggest game so far — Monday Night Football’s Bills vs. Bengals — target Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, according to our director of analytics Sean Koerner’s projections.
They metrics aren’t necessarily bullish on the two quarterbacks, however.
The other player on this most valuable list is probably flying underneath your radar.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Bills vs. Bengals on Monday Night Football
- Joe Burrow under 26.5 pass completions -125 (DraftKings)
- Josh Allen under 22.5 pass completions -125 (DraftKings)
- James Cook over 9.5 receiving yards -120 (BetMGM)
- Joe Burrow under 38.5 pass attempts -105 (DraftKings)
- Josh Allen under 34.5 pass attempts -110 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Monday morning, according to Koerner’s models. These are the market’s most valuable prices.
Four of the five most valuable props for Monday Night Football’s Bills vs. Bengals involve Burrow and Allen — but not on any of their overs.
Their unders for pass attempts and pass completions all have at least 12% in betting edge.
Essentially, you’re getting at least a 12% discount on the true price of those prop bets, according to our algorithms.
Burrow’s completion under is the most valuable out of the bunch. The market price at DraftKings sets his total at 26.5 (-125). Meanwhile, he’s projected at 23.4 total completions.
That’s an 18.1% betting edge.
Allen’s edge on completions is roughly 17% on a 21 completion projection.
As for pass attempts, Burrow is expected to attempt just 36.5 passes on a 38.5 total while Allen is projected at 32.5 attempts on a 34.5 total.
James Cook’s receiving yard total has solid value, too. Cook’s projection of about 18 receiving yards pales in comparison to his 9.5 yard total at BetMGM. That’s a roughly 13% edge.