NFL Referee Assignments, Betting Trends for AFC, NFC Championship Games

Credit:

Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire/Corbis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Referee John Hussey (35)

Jan 16, 2020, 09:57 AM EST
  • Tony Corrente and John Hussey will be the head referees for the AFC and NFC Championship Games, respectively.
  • Using Bet Labs, we share against-the-spread and over/under trends to know for each referee.

Officiating assignments for the conference championships are set. Tony Corrente and John Hussey will lead the two crews officiating the games this weekend.

Referees by definition are impartial, but they do have tendencies that bettors can exploit. Using the Bet Labs database, we highlight interesting trends for each ref officiating the second round of the playoffs.

Of course, placing a wager based solely on the past results of the referee officiating the game would be unwise. This is just one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler.

Note: Records include regular season and playoff games since 2003.

AFC Championship: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

3:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Head official: Tony Corrente

  • Favorites: 84-97-5 ATS (46.4%, -15.87 units)
  • Home Teams: 92-85-5 ATS (52.0%, +3.83 units)
  • Overs: 80-102-4 (44.0%, -24.92 units)
  • Titans: 4-6-1 ATS
  • Chiefs: 6-8 ATS

The Titans-Chiefs total opened 52. More than 60% of tickets are on the over, which has helped move the total to 53. However, history suggests those bettors will be disappointed as Corrente is the most profitable “under official” in our database, going 102-80-4 (56.0%).

The Action Network simulations project the teams to combine for 47.8 points on average.

NFC Championship: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

6:40 p.m. ET, FOX

Head official: John Hussey

  • Favorites: 39-38-2 ATS (50.6%, -1.33 units)
  • Home Teams: 41-34-2 ATS (54.7%, +4.78 units)
  • Overs: 33-45-1 (42.2%, -13.24 units)
  • Packers: 2-3 ATS
  • 49ers: 2-1 ATS

The under is 45-33-1 (57.8%) in games that Hussey has officiated since 2015. One reason that it has been profitable to bet the under when Hussey refs is because he doesn’t throw many flags.

According to Pro Football Reference, Hussey’s crews have called fewer penalties per game than the league average in four of his five seasons wearing the white hat. Fewer penalty yards generally leads to fewer first downs and thus, less scoring.

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