AJ Dillon Prop Pick: Monday Night Football Bet for Packers vs Raiders
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In a surprise turn of events, Green Bay Packers lead back Aaron Jones has been ruled out for Monday Night Football in Las Vegas tonight, giving AJ Dillon another opportunity to be featured in the offense.
While Dillon has been awful in previous situations in an elevated role, tonight's matchup could be the perfect time to buy low.
The Packers enter this game with a healthy offensive line, which has not been the case since Week 2 against the Falcons. Starting guards Elgton Jenkins and Jon Runyan are in good shape and ready to play — excellent news, as it should help the Packers establish a more effective running game.
In their previous game against Detroit, without Jenkins and Runyan, the Packers couldn't get their running game going. Because the Lions jumped out to a big lead lead, it forced coach and offensive play-caller Matt LaFleur to abandon the run, which he utilized at the second-lowest rate (26.70%) among all teams in Week 4.
Patrick Taylor is a recent addition to the 53-man roster. Emanuel Wilson could get some touches, but if the Packers want to keep the Raiders from getting the ball, it's up to Dillon to perform like he did the previous two seasons when he averaged 4.2 yards per carry.
The Raiders present a favorable opportunity for Dillon to have efficient rush attempts. Unlike the Lions and Saints, who are both top-five teams in DVOA against the run, the Raiders are average. They allow opponents to rush an average of 25 times per game, the fifth most in the league. All four lead backs that Vegas has faced this season have gone over this prop.
Assuming the game remains close, as the spread (Raiders -2.5) indicates, I like Dillon's chances of successfully going over his rush attempts prop.
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