The Los Angeles Rams and New York Giants will face off in Monday Night Football Week 2, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top NFL prop bet for tonight featuring Rams QB Matthew Stafford.
Let's get into his Rams vs. Giants player props for Monday, September 21.
Download the Action Network app now for more picks and analysis!
Koerner's Matthew Stafford Prop Bet
Matthew Stafford Pass Completions Over/Under
Matthew Stafford always has a pretty high floor in this market. He doesn’t scramble much, avoids sacks, and is one of the best pure passers we’ve ever seen.
The market has 18 seasons of evidence telling us that, so this isn’t some “Stafford sucked in Week 1, let’s fade him again” angle. It’s actually the opposite.
I think there are a bunch of ways the Rams offense can play well tonight and still help this under.
With Puka Nacua looking likely to sit, I expect the Rams to lean a little more on the run. They were at a ridiculous -12.3% PROE in the opener, and there’s no way in hell I’m projecting them to be that run heavy again, but I’m still only around +2% PROE tonight.
Ideally, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are ripping off chunk gains and keeping Stafford’s volume down.
When Stafford does throw, I’d expect more downfield looks to Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson.
The clown car WR group behind Puka is also pretty ugly. Jordan Whittington, who would’ve been the most natural short-area replacement, is doubtful. Konata Mumpfield could inherit some of that role, but I don’t expect Stafford to pepper him with targets. Xavier Smith, Tutu Atwell and CJ Daniels all profile more as downfield/big-play options.
That’s actually perfect for this bet. We’re totally fine with Stafford completing deep passes. A 20+ yard completion advances the offense quickly, shortens the drive and can put the Rams in position to score. A long TD is even better because the drive ends immediately and a Rams lead encourages more rushing.
Check out the rest of our Monday Night Football coverage!
Related Articles
The Giants also committed a league-high four defensive pass interference penalties last week. DPI on a deep shot is basically the dream outcome here: all the field-position benefit of a completion without adding one to Stafford’s total.
That’s also why I always laugh when people say unders mean rooting for “nothing to happen.” You’re rooting for very specific things. Efficient runs. Chunk passes. DPI. Short drives. Touchdowns. Long Giants possessions that bleed clock. There’s plenty going on.
The Giants should be fairly run heavy themselves, which can keep Stafford standing on the sideline and lower the overall play volume.
I think both teams could approach this game in a way that naturally suppresses total snaps, and completion props are directly tied to that.
I have Stafford closer to 20.8 completions with around a 58% chance to stay under 21.5, but I think a lot of the underlying factors lean even more toward the under than that raw projection shows.
With Puka’s status creating so many moving pieces in the other markets, this is my Prop of the Game.
The rooting guide is pretty simple: Rams run game humming, Stafford pushing the ball downfield when he does throw, LA getting ahead early, and the Giants putting together long clock-killing drives on the other side.
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 21.5 Completions (-106)
