SuperContest looking for a bounceback week
Las Vegas – It can’t get any worse than last week, right?
Our four SuperContest teams all failed to have winning records, as the competition was turned on its head by home favorites going 6-1-1 ATS in Week 7. Historically, this has been an underdog-playing crowd and last week was no different, spelling out doom for most of teams.
For Team Gamenight, my team, it was a disastrous 1-4 week that dropped my record below .500 for the first time since Week 1. After I opened play 1-3-1, I bounced back with a 4-1 record in Week 2. I really need that to happen again here in
Week 8 because I’m now in jeopardy of missing my two goals for my first run at this contest.
In September, I set objectives of hitting on over 50 percent for my picks overall and coming in the top half of the tournament. In order to complete both tasks, I have to get back on the horse and get back to picking winners.
The lines for week eight are pretty interesting because my automatic elimination of road favorites removed only four options. Normally, that move cuts out a good chunk, but this week I passed on the Vikings (-9.5), Falcons (-4.5), Cowboys (-2), and the Steelers (-3).
Let’s talk about the teams I did take this week. I’m changing things up a bit by laying more points than usual:
Saints -9 vs. Bears
New Orleans has quietly turned into a playoff team and one worth paying attention to for the rest of the season. After opening the year 0-2, the Saints have run off four straight wins over the Panthers, Dolphins, Lions and Packers. Since we are talking about the number here, it should also be pointed out that New Orleans has gone 4-0 ATS during this streak. The Bears’ offense is awful, and they refuse to do anything but play ball control. Chicago’s defense scored 14 points last week in their 17-3 win over the Panthers (which was the only pick I got right last week). That won’t happen again on the road against the Saints. Chicago will have to throw the ball with their rookie QB or risk getting blown out of the Dome in the first half on Sunday. Either decision is bad news for the Bears on turf. It’s a lot of points, but I think New Orleans beats the fur off Chicago.
49ers +12.5 at Eagles
This is the biggest line of the week in the SuperContest, and it’s only gone up here in Vegas since it opened at Philly -10.5. Most are taking Philly to destroy San Francisco the same way that the Cowboys did last week, but I don’t agree. Teams getting double digits, coming off of a blowout loss, are fun to roll with in the NFL due to all the points you can take. We all know the 49ers got their butts chewed all week long by their coaches while the Eagles got showered with praised, getting called the best team in the NFL after their win over Washington on Monday Night. Philly QB Carson Wentz is my MVP pick for 2017 so far, but I think the Eagles are due for a letdown. The 49ers were playing close games before Dallas ripped them apart. I think they return to keeping losses to under two scores.
Patriots -7 vs. Chargers
I will admit that this game has push written all over it. I would much rather have seen this line at -6.5, but the Chargers are traveling across the country for an early start. Los Angeles continues to stink ATS with a 3-8-1 record over their last 12 games as well. The Chargers have dropped seven of their last eight games at New England, and the Pats are starting to put things together on defense. I think the loss of LB Dont’a Hightower will be a bigger deal against a team like the Steelers. While the Chargers have won three in a row SU and ATS, and their pass rushers are legit, I think a road game at Gillette against the defending champs will be a tall order. I like the Pats to win and cover.
"For purpose. For everybody watching us."
Sunday night's sights and sounds: pic.twitter.com/5ftD98ckU4
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 26, 2017
Redskins +2 vs. Cowboys
While going with your gut can sometimes be a dangerous way to pick games, I’m going to play a hunch on this game for this week. RB Zeke Elliott has a court case on Monday that could determine if he will play a full season or have to serve a six-game suspension. Last week, Elliott had his "beep you" game to the NFL, and I think there might be a letdown coming at Washington. The Cowboys’ defense isn’t great, and I think the Redskins’ offense is due to have a big game. Both teams are 3-3 and trying to keep pace with the Eagles. I’ll take the home team here.
Chiefs -7 vs. Broncos
Kansas City has lost two games in a row, and the team that Kansas City fans call "the Donkeys" are coming to Arrowhead for a primetime game. The stadium will be a hornets nest on Monday Night Football, and poor Denver is coming off a shutout loss to the Chargers on the road last week. Something is really wrong with the Broncos after losses to the Giants and Chargers in back-to-back games, and this isn’t the week for them to get right. The Chiefs defense is going to force Denver QB Trevor Siemian to beat them, and I don’t think he can. I like the Chiefs to win big.
Our first place team, Team Bet The Process, has decided to follow last week’s trend of favorites covering big spreads. They have selected the Eagles (-12.5) as huge favorites to blow out the 49ers, the Bengals (-10.5) also as double-digit favorites to crush the Colts, and the Patriots (-7) to beat the Chargers. They do have two ‘dog plays with the Panthers (+2) on the road to beat the Bucs and the Redskins (+2) at home versus the Cowboys.
Our second place team is Beatrix Kiddo, and they like the 49ers (+12.5), the Chargers (+7), the Lions (+3), and the Bucs (-2). They also like the Bengals (-10.5) to crush the Colts.
Finally, Team Sports Action, our computer algorithm, looks to have a bounceback week. It also likes the trend of favorites covering by selecting the Saints (-9), the Eagles (-12.5), the Bills (-2.5) and Chiefs (-7) while taking the Lions (+3) as one underdog play.
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