Falcons vs Bears NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields.
- The Falcons are home favorites against the Bears in Week 11.
- Both teams love to run the ball, especially Chicago with Justin Fields under center.
- Blake Krass breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Falcons vs Bears Odds
Justin Fields has taken the NFL by storm, playing the two best games of his career in his last two starts. He has put up record-breaking rushing numbers, but they have still resulted in two Bears losses.
The Falcons have dropped three of their last four games and are also in the midst of a struggle. Some of Marcus Mariota's success from early in the season is starting to disappear, and the Falcons' run game is suffering because of it.
I think this will be an interesting matchup since both of these teams really want to put the focus on running the football. Both defenses have struggled this season, but they could find success facing a more predictable game plan in this matchup.
Falcons vs. Bears Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Falcons and Bears match up statistically:
Falcons vs. Bears DVOA Breakdown
Bears +3 | Falcons -3
On the surface, this is a matchup of two teams that play little defense but are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Bears and Falcons are 29th and 30th respectively in defensive DVOA. This has the total inflated up to 49, which is very high for a quarterback matchup between Justin Fields and Marcus Mariota.
Both teams run the ball at a very high rate. These are the top-two teams in rushing play percentage. The Bears run the football on 59.6% of offensive plays, and the Falcons are at 56.07%. The next closest team is below 54%.
So, despite the below-par defenses, this game should fly by with both teams running at such an insane rate. The pace will slow down, and we will see a lot of methodical drives. This will also result in a lot of punts and field-position battles.
Although it's marginal, both defenses have been better against the run than the pass. Also, Fields is so difficult to game plan against, but this Falcons defense does practice against Mariota. He's no Fields, but he is sixth in the NFL in rush attempts by a quarterback. That experience against a mobile QB gives the Falcons defense an edge over some others.
I think this game will be played at an incredibly slow pace given these run-heavy offenses. Also, more tape is now available on the new-look Bears offense that has led Fields to so much success over the past couple of weeks. The Falcons defense has also had an extra three days to study that tape after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.
The under is the best path in this game for bettors. Neither team can be trusted to win this game, but both can be trusted to keep running the ball.
I am going with the under at 49.5 and would bet it down to 48.5. These teams will be the definition of snails and in what should be a close game, coaches should be comfortable in a field-position battle. The defenses of both teams should be able to slightly over-perform against two offenses that are so one-dimensional. Time to root against points.
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