Bengals vs Cardinals Odds, Picks for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction
Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Burrow (left) and Joshua Dobbs (right).
Bengals vs Cardinals Odds, Picks for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 45 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 Even | 45 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Here's everything you need to know about Bengals vs Cardinals odds and picks for Week 5, including the spread, the total and our expert prediction.
In one of the trickier games to make a pick for in the NFL Week 5 slate, we present Bengals vs. Cardinals odds, which have visiting Cincinnati as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total over/under is currently set at 45 points scored by both teams combined.
It has been a bizarre season for both the Bengals and Cardinals. Cincinnati has drastically underperformed with Joe Burrow playing at less than 100% while the Cardinals have exceeded expectations. And if life wasn't already hard for Burrow, he'll be without Tee Higgins at State Farm Stadium.
This game should be a good measuring stick to see just how far the Bengals have fallen and how real the Cardinals are.
Continue reading below for our full Cincinnati-Arizona betting preview, which includes a Bengals vs. Cardinals pick.
Joe Burrow has been the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. If you look at the Bengals’ record and watch their games, it's obvious something is wrong with Burrow.
Yet, somehow, the underlying numbers are even more concerning. The top advanced metric to measure a quarterback's performance is EPA+CPOE composite, which basically combines the adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage over expected, then uses more math to come up with a number.
The only quarterbacks with a negative EPA+CPOE composite are Burrow, Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett — and Burrow is last. Burrow is also 30th in the league in air yards per pass, with only Bryce Young and (surprisingly) Dak Prescott worse. For reference, Burrow was sixth in EPA+CPOE composite last season.
Burrow’s injury has basically flushed the Bengals’ season down the toilet. It's quite hard to fathom why head coach Zac Taylor is risking further injury to his signal-caller when Burrow can't even muster an average level of play.
Until Burrow demonstrates that he's healthy enough to play competently, it's tough to back Cincinnati. Joe Mixon’s production is also hurting as Burrow’s lack of mobility is taking away a huge part of Mixon's game.
Bet Cincinnati vs. Arizona at FanDuel
On the other side of the field, Joshua Dobbs is having a very strong start to his season.
Dobbs is among the 13 quarterbacks with an EPA+CPOE composite over 0.1. That puts Dobbs closely behind Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts, according to that metric. Dobbs looked solid against an elite Cowboys defense and Arizona could easily be 3-1 if it hadn't blown big fourth-quarter leads against both the Giants and Commanders.
The main thing I have taken away from the start of the Cardinals season is how well coached they are. Jonathan Gannon was clowned in the preseason for a video in which he came across as dorky with the Cardinals players, but he's clearly gotten a strong message across to this team.
The defense doesn't have a ton of talent and isn't ranked near the top of any advanced metrics, but Arizona has still managed to hang tough despite playing arguably the two best teams in the NFC over the past two weeks.
With Burrow unable to run, plant or throw properly, defending Cincinnati is really more about scheming the right defense than having freaks who can make huge plays.
That's why I'm not overly concerned with the state of the Cardinals defense. Simply put, I don’t think Burrow can expose Arizona the way Brock Purdy did last week.
Bengals vs. Cardinals
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Bengals defense has also struggled this season. They rank 25th in defensive DVOA and, even worse, 30th in rush defense DVOA. That is bad news against a Cardinals offense that has thrived running the football, ranking fifth in rush offense DVOA.
James Conner is having his best season in years and ranks second in the NFL in rush yards before contact and third in 10+ yard runs. I expect Conner to have a big game. That in turn will limit possessions for Cincinnati and allow Arizona to control the game.
On the injury report, Trey Hendrickson popped up for the Bengals after he tweaked his back in Friday's practice. That injury has been recurring over the past few years.
Hendrickson would be a major loss for the Bengals as he has been the lone pass rusher with real success this year. Cincinnati's No. 2 receiver, Tee Higgins, is also questionable, which would only make Burrow's job harder.
I'm backing Arizona at +3 only — I wouldn't play anything lower.
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