Titans vs. Browns Betting Odds & Predictions: Cleveland Overhyped?

Titans vs. Browns Betting Odds & Predictions: Cleveland Overhyped? article feature image
Credit:

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield

Titans at Browns Betting Odds

  • Odds: Browns -5.5
  • Total: 45.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

All odds above are as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet.

We now live in a world where the Cleveland Browns are perhaps the most-hyped team coming into an NFL season. With Baker Mayfield under center, Odell Beckham Jr. out wide and anybody but Hue Jackson on the sideline, the market is bullish on the Browns.

The question all season long will be whether the NFL’s newest darlings will be overrated thanks to public love. As of noon ET on Thursday, 70% of the bets were on Cleveland to beat the number.

Let’s dig into our experts’ preview of their season opener, featuring matchup analysis and picks.

Browns-Titans Injury Report

The Titans and Browns both enter this game in good health. Although, there are two suspensions worth noting. Browns receiver Antonio Callaway will miss the first four games of the season: He amassed 20% of the Browns’ Air Yards and 14% of their target share last year. His absence will make room for Rashard Higgins in 3-WR sets with Jarvis Landry and Beckham.

Also, the Titans will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 15 tackle in 2018. Right tackle Dennis Kelly is expected to slide over to fill his role, he’s an excellent pass and run-blocker, but he’ll have his hands full against Myles Garrett, PFF’s No. 6-graded defensive end when it comes to the pass rush. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Browns -4
  • Projected Total: 45

The Browns are entering this season with a lot of hype. They’re built to win now and are likely going to be a team the public backs heavily.

Their Week 1 opponent is the Titans, who are a very bland team that isn’t going to be drawing a ton of public backing this week. That seems to be the case as the line has been bet up from -5 to -6 at some shops. I make the Browns 4-point favorites and I’m guessing we won’t see enough action to get the Browns pushed up to a key number like 7.

There does seem to be a bit of sharp resistance on this line as 66% of the money is coming in on the Titans as of writing. I’m willing to see if it can get pushed up to 6.5 and then will likely come in on the Titans. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Browns Wide Receivers vs. Titans Cornerbacks

Last year the Titans were No. 5 overall with a 90.2 coverage grade (per PFF), so this should theoretically be a hard matchup for the Browns passing game. But I expect Beckham and Landry to go off in their first game together since they were LSU teammates a half decade ago.

In 2018, the Titans defense was strong in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA against tight ends and running backs, but against any of the three wide receiver positions, they ranked no better than No. 20.

Based on how the Titans used him last year, I expect third-year cornerback Adoree’ Jackson to shadow Beckham, and although Jackson has potential, he’s not on OBJ’s level yet. In Week 11 last year, Jackson tailed T.Y. Hilton on 77.8% of his routes, and Hilton humiliated him with an 8-146-2 receiving line on eight targets.

And Landry and No. 3 wide receiver Higgins should be able to have their way with former Patriots castoffs Logan Ryan in the slot and Malcolm Butler on the outside. Last year, Ryan and Butler combined to allow 1,192 yards and 10 touchdowns with a 65.7% catch rate in their coverage.

In OBJ’s first game with Mayfield, the Browns seem likely to attack aggressively through the air, and the Titans corners simply don’t match up well with the Browns wide receivers. Matthew Freedman

Expert Pick

Chris Raybon: Browns -5.5

I like the Browns at the dead number here for the reasons Freedman mentioned. Mayfield was 0.1 yards per attempt behind Patrick Mahomes for the league lead over the second half of last season and took just five sacks over that eight-game span.

The Titans like to muck up the game to stay close and have a mostly solid football team, but even with Delanie Walker back and the addition of Adam Humphries, they’ll struggle to play from behind against Garrett and Olivier Vernon off the edge with Denzel Ward blanketing Corey Davis.

Last season, Tennessee mustered just 4.8 yards per play when trailing, 26th in the league.