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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys play the first game of NFL Week 5 on Thursday Night Football. The game is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas.
For this article, I'm targeting the First Touchdown and Anytime Touchdown market in Buccaneers vs Cowboys. You'll learn why I'm inclined to make a play Buccaneers veteran WR Chris Godwin.
Continue below for my Buccaneers vs Cowboys first touchdown/anytime touchdown scorer props.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys First Touchdown Props
- Chris Godwin First Touchdown (3% YES at Kalshi); .05U
- Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown (+500, DraftKings); .15U
Odds subject to change
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Touchdown Scorer Picks
Chris Godwin First Touchdown (3% YES) / Anytime Touchdown (+500)
— Written by @VicksPicksHQ for PropBomb
I think this is a good buy-low spot on Chris Godwin and the Buccaneers offense.
I don't think Tampa's offense is quite as bad as the market is making it out to be with Jalon Daniels at quarterback. A downgrade from Baker Mayfield, Daniels made some poor decisions in his first NFL start last week against the Packers, but he's shown enough to be taken seriously.
The usage is what I keep coming back to.
Godwin has been a full-time player, operates primarily out of the slot, and led Tampa Bay with a 26.9% target share last week even though the offense struggled to generate much downfield. He's also been very efficient with his opportunities.
Through Week 3, Godwin was tied for the second-highest catch rate in the NFL at 90.9%. Among receivers with at least 10 targets, he had the league's best forced missed tackle rate at 50%, per Next Gen Stats. That's the profile of a player who can turn a short target into a score.
I'd also expect a rookie quarterback on a short week to lean on quick, high-percentage throws, which is where Godwin does a lot of his damage.
The Buccaneers acknowledged this week that they need to do a better job of getting both Godwin and Emeka Egbuka the ball, and they've already shown a willingness to manufacture touches for Godwin, including a few designed looks. He also had a 90-yard touchdown called back earlier this season. I don't think we'd be getting these prices if that play had counted.
Dallas' defense remains a matchup I want to attack.
The Cowboys allowed a league-worst 30.1 points per game last season and finished last in passing yards allowed. They rebuilt the unit this offseason, but I don't think that's enough to stop me from attacking them with a high-volume slot receiver. If Tampa falls behind, the passing volume should be there in a negative gamescript .
I'm taking a shot at the first TD as well because I like the potential for Tampa to get the ball first. Dallas has deferred every time it has won the coin toss this season, while Tampa has elected to receive every time.
That suggests Tampa has a good chance to open with the ball regardless of who wins the toss. Small sample, so I don't want to overstate it, but it's another angle I like.
Ultimately, I just think these prices are far too big for a player who is still on the field a ton, has a defined role in the offense, and is playing a defense I want to attack.
- Chris Godwin First Touchdown (3% YES at Kalshi); .05U
- Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown (+500, DraftKings); .15U
