Buccaneers vs Vikings Odds, Prediction: The Best Week 1 NFL Bet
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Bucs vs. Vikings Odds, Prediction
|Odds according to DraftKings|
The Buccaneers vs. Vikings game has the best NFL Week 1 bet, according to Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms.
Our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, developed models for every Week 1 game, and has identified Bucs vs. Vikings as the best contest to glean value.
According to our models, the Bucs should be just +3.5 underdogs in this matchup. That includes a +163 clip on the moneyline.
Meanwhile, DraftKings is pricing this contest at +7 and +250.
That’s a crazy 9.5% betting edge, ordinarily unheard of for an NFL moneyline.
Effectively, you’re receiving a 9.5% discount on that ML pick. Another way to think about it: the second you hit submit on a Bucs ML pick, you’re receiving 9.5 cents in expected value for every dollar wagered.
The Bucs — even without Tom Brady and with Baker Mayfield at the helm — should win this contest about 38% of the time. As they’re being priced now, the market is expecting them to win just 28.5% of the time.
Remember, this selection still loses 62% of the time. But betting mostly — if not, exclusively — on positive expected value lines is how you make a profit sports betting over the long run.
Fading the Vikings had been the analytics community’s favorite activity last regular season. While the team finished as the No. 3 seed, they were considered the worst home playoff team in history when they faced off against the Giants in the Wild Card Round.
That’s on account of an unsustainable, incredibly lucky 11-0 record in close games.
Famously, the Vikings were +3 underdogs for a contest at the Lions, when Detroit had a decidedly losing record and the Vikings were riding high as the No. 2 seed.
While the public took the points with the Vikings — perplexed that the No. 2 seed could be the underdog against a “bad” team — the analytics community stayed firm on the fade Minny train.
The Lions won by 11.
Some of these principles hold firm for this upcoming season.
The Vikings are overrated.
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