NFL Week 1 Odds, Predictions: Projections For All 16 Games
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- Odds for every NFL Week 1 game have been posted.
- Which game has the biggest edge?
- And what is the specific spread and moneyline for each contest?
Week 1 odds for the upcoming NFL regular season have been posted by DraftKings. Let's run through the full list of spreads and moneylines for each matchup.
As of Thursday afternoon, only three games have official dates and times with odds attached. This story will be updated as we know more.
Lions vs. Chiefs Odds
Time: Thursday, Sept. 7. 8:20 p.m. ET
Spread: Lions +6.5, Chiefs -6.5
Moneyline: Lions +220, Chiefs -260
Our data analytics team projected lines for every game on the docket — all 272 regular season games.
For Lions vs. Chiefs, the spread is at perfect equilibrium, according to our models. DraftKings' line of +6.5 may have slight value on account of vig, which is priced at +100.
The moneylines across the market don't have value, according to the algorithms. The Lions should be priced around +250 while the Chiefs should be closer to -250.
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Eagles vs. Patriots Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-120), Patriots +3.5 (-102)
Moneyline: Eagles -194, Patriots +162
The Action Network's proprietary algorithms indicate the Eagles should be -3 (-110) favorites here. That includes a -152 clip on the moneyline. Conversely, the Patriots should be +3 (-110) and +152 on the ML.
So, there's a small edge on the Patriots' ML for this Week 1 matchup, according to our models.
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Bengals vs. Browns Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Bengals -2.5, Browns +2.5
Moneyline: Bengals -130, Browns +110
The Bengals should be small -1 favorites for this matchup. And -115 on the moneyline. The Browns should be +115.
There may be value on the Browns' spread, then, as a result — although beware. A spread of +2.5 doesn't get you to the key number of 3. Generally, they should be avoided.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Dolphins +1, Chargers -1
Moneyline: Dolphins -105, Chargers -115
According to our projections, the Dolphins should be +2 underdogs for this matchup and +132 on the moneyline. For the Chargers? The exact converse: -2 and -132 is their equilibrium price.
So, it looks like the Chargers ML is the sharp pick here.
49ers vs. Steelers Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: 49ers -1.5, Steelers +1.5
Moneyline: 49ers -120, Steelers +100
Our projections indicate that the NFC runners up should only be -0.5 favorites despite their pedigree. That's a -107 price on the moneyline.
There's no edge here.
Rams vs. Seahawks Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Rams +4, Seahawks -4
Moneyline: Rams +160, Seahawks -190
Our projections indicate the Rams should be +3 road underdogs and +152 on this moneyline. As we've done before, reverse those metrics for the Seahawks.
That means a very minuscule edge here on the Rams' spread and moneyline.
Packers vs. Bears Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Packers +1, Bears -1
Moneyline: Packers -105, Bears -115
Our projections say the Bears should be -1 on the spread and -115 on the moneyline in what may be an unfamiliar sight for fans of both these franchises.
And that's exactly what DraftKings has opened up with. Both of the Bears' lines are at perfect market price.
Titans vs. Saints Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Titans +3, Saints -3
Moneyline: Titans +130, Saints -150
The Action Network's proprietary algorithms slate the Saints as -3.5, -163 favorites for this contest from Louisiana. Will this be the start of the Will Levis era? Or the end of the Ryan Tannehill one?
As it stands, the best lines are with the Saints' spread and moneyline, but they're small edges.
Texans vs. Ravens Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Texans +8, Ravens -8
Moneyline: Texans +300, Ravens -365
The Action Network's proprietary algorithms have the Ravens as -8.2 favorites for this matchup against CJ Stroud and company. That's a -320 clip on the moneyline — by far the longest odds for the Week 1 slate.
And yet, the Texans' moneyline still doesn't meet that mark. While they should be at least +320 on the ML, they're priced at +300 at DK. This is a stayaway.
Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Raiders +3 (-115), Broncos -3 (-105)
Moneyline: Raiders +125, Broncos -145
The Action Network's proprietary models have the Broncos -3.2 favorites — at equilibrium — against the Raiders.
After a disappointing season, Russell Wilson will look to revive his career under Sean Payton.
The moneyline equilibrium for this matchup is Broncos -156, Raiders +156.
So, the best line is with the Broncos ML, but only slightly.
Cardinals vs. Commanders Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Cardinals +4.5, Commanders -4.5
Moneyline: Cardinals +165, Commanders -195
This might be the biggest stinker of the week.
The Commanders and Sam Howell are -4.5 favorites in this matchup, at equilibrium, according to Koerner. And that's exactly how they've opened on Thursday night.
The perfect moneyline? Commanders -187, Cardinals +187.
This is a stayaway.
Buccaneers vs. Vikings Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Bucs +6, Vikings -6
Moneyline: Bucs +210, Vikings -250
Tampa's first game post-Tom Brady finds them up north. For what may jumpstart the next chapter of Baker Mayfield's career, the Bucs find themselves +3.5 underdogs at equilibrium for this matchup.
The Bucs' fair value moneyline is +163 relative to the Vikings' -163 clip.
This is the biggest edge of the night so far, according to our models.
Ride with the Bucs' spread and moneyline.
Panthers vs. Falcons Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Panthers +1.5, Falcons -1.5
Moneyline: Panthers +100, Falcons -120
This divisional matchup finds the Panthers at +3, +151 underdogs at equilibrium and Atlanta as -3, -151 favorites.
The Falcons are the move here.
Jaguars vs. Colts Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10.
Spread: Jaguars -3.5, Colts +3.5
Moneyline: Jaguars -175, Colts +150
The last non-primetime game listed will likely see rookie Anthony Richardson make his career debut. All signs point toward him playing as much possible his first season out.
For this one, our models aren't very bullish on Indy's prospects. The Colts are slated as +3.5 home underdogs. That's a +163 mark on the moneyline.
Of course, conversely, the Jaguars are, at equilibrium, -163 favorites and -3.5 on the spread.
There's no edge for this contest.
Cowboys vs. Giants Odds
Time: Sunday, Sept. 10. 8:20 p.m. ET (Sunday Night Football)
Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (-115), Giants +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Cowboys -142, Giants +120
This marketplace is as close to equilibrium as you can get.
We project the spread as Cowboys -2.5 (-110). Compare that to Cowboys -2.5 (-115) at FanDuel.
And on the moneyline, we have the exact price of Cowboys -142 on our models. The Giants should be +142, according to the equilibrium price.
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Bills vs. Jets Odds
Time: Monday, Sept. 11. 8:20 p.m. ET
Spread: Bills -3, Jets +3
Moneyline: Bills -154, Jets +130
The algorithms indicate slight value here on the underdog. While the Jets project as +0.5, +107 underdogs, their current price gives them a slight edge.
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