Cardinals vs Raiders Odds, Picks, Predictions

Cardinals vs Raiders Odds, Picks, Predictions article feature image

Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray.

  • The Raiders (-5.5) host the Cardinals in Week 2.
  • Both teams are looking for their first win of the season after dropping their openers.
  • John LanFranca breaks down the game and lays out how he's betting the Cardinals.

Cardinals vs. Raiders Odds

Sunday, Sept. 18
4:25 p.m. ET
Cardinals Odds
-112o / -109u
Raiders Odds
-112o / -109u
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This line represents the biggest overreaction to a Week 1 result. 

What if the Cardinals played the Chiefs closely a week ago? Or even pulled off the upset? Yes, that is a hypothetical world, but one where the Cardinals would find themselves as only three-point underdogs against the Raiders

Simply put, if you want to become a bettor who consistently wins long term, you need to be able to capitalize on spots like this where sportsbooks gift bettors a extra few points of value due to recency bias.

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Cardinals vs. Raiders Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cardinals and Raiders match up statistically:

Cardinals vs. Raiders DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2420
Pass DVOA1829
Rush DVOA298
Overall DVOA2932
Pass DVOA3032
Rush DVOA1121

There are many factors working against the Raiders.

Starting center Andre James (concussion), who was ranked sixth at the position in Week 1 (per PFF), is not available for the game. On the other side of the ball, LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) has also been ruled out. Perryman led the Raiders in tackles in 2021 and his loss should not be overlooked.

And while early season injuries have not been kind to the Cardinals either, DL J.J. Watt (calf) is expected back, TE Zach Ertz (calf) practiced in full all week and LB Markus Golden is no longer on the injury report.

Along with the injuries, history is also working against the Raiders.

Derek Carr has covered the spread at an abysmal 35% rate as a home favorite over his career. When his team is favored by more than three points at home, that number drops even lower — with the Raiders covering on only 28.6% of their opportunities. 

In contrast to Carr, Kyler Murray has thrived in these situations. Murray is an incredible 15-6-2 against the number as a visitor in his short career. Any trend north of 70% should get your attention. He boasts nearly an 80% cover rate when his team travels to unfriendly territory and finds themselves as the underdog (11-3-2 ATS).

Further compounding these trends, Murray has played 10 career road games where his team has been priced as more than a three-point underdog. In those contests, the Kliff Kingsbury and Murray combination have cashed the ticket in seven of the eight instances that did not push, resulting in a 87.5% cover rate.

Betting Picks

The Chiefs and Raiders should not, under any circumstances, both carry a 5.5-point advantage into a game against the Cardinals. 

Las Vegas' offense graded out 29th in the league according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric in Week 1. Derek Carr earned a corresponding PFF grade, finishing 31st of 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

This line flirted with six before sharp money drove it back down to 5.5. The Cardinals are a live dog in this situation and have proven time and time again they flourish in the road underdog role.

I will gladly fade the Raiders in this spot and grab the value with points and the Arizona moneyline.

Picks: Cardinals +5.5 &+200 moneyline (BetMGM) | Bet to +5 & +185

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