The Smart Way to Bet Chiefs-Chargers: A System for the MNF Over/Under
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes
- The Chiefs-Chargers over/under has moved from 49 to 52.5 on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable strategy for wagering on division over/unders late in the season.
The Monday Night Football over/under is moving. Oddsmakers opened the total for Chiefs-Chargers at 49 (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). More than 60% of tickets are on the over, which has moved the number to 52.5.
The public is expecting a shootout, but what does history say about what should occur during the MNF game in Mexico City?
Since 2003, the under is 823-728-29 (53.1%) in division games, returning a profit of $4,911 for a $100 bettor according to Bet Labs. Why divisional games? The increased familiarity between teams (play calling tendencies) tends to create a lower scoring environment.
It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it has been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It is just easier for unders to cash when more points were expected to be scored.
The optimal situation to bet unders in division games is late in the season. This works for a few reasons, it is often the second time teams are facing each other which helps with understanding the opponent’s tendencies. Plus, late in the season injuries are more likely to be a factor, which can limit a team’s offensive upside.
In this Bet Labs PRO system, division unders have gone 180-109-3 (62.3%) since 2003. A $100 bettor following this simple strategy has returned a profit of $6,206.
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Of course, it is not just history that points to value on the under in this matchup. Chiefs-Chargers is being played in Mexico City. Estadio Azteca stadium is more than 7,000 feet above sea level. The high elevation means the air is thinner, which could lead to the teams tiring faster.
We’ve also seen a Steam Move, an indication of smart money, triggered on the under.
This is a classic Joe’s vs. Pro’s with squares on over in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup and sharps on the under.
PRO System Match: Under 52.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]