Chiefs vs Jaguars Pick, Odds, NFL Week 2 Prediction

We start the Week 2 slate on Sunday with a Chiefs vs. Jaguars pick in a playoff rematch from January.

Kansas City seems to be getting everyone — notably, Travis Kelce — back at the right time. The Chiefs will be at full strength as they take on Jacksonville in a rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Round playoff game. Can Jacksonville overcome injuries and personnel turnover on the offensive line to avenge last season's playoff exit?

Let's break down the Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds and make a pick.

Week 1 may have been disappointing, but, on the bright side, Patrick Mahomes looked as strong as ever. There aren’t many box score stats that jump out, but if you watched the game, it's clear that Mahomes in still in peak form.

Mahomes had the sixth-best PFF grade among quarterbacks last week. He was pressured 20 times, but didn't take a single sack.

We all already know that Kansas City's offense can be deadly, especially with Travis Kelce back. I also expect to see Kadarius Toney and possibly Skyy Moore get worked in as Andy Reid tries to give them more opportunities.

The Chiefs defense held strong against Detroit and only allowed 14 points to a Lions offense that's considered to be one of the better units in the league.

Jacksonville also has a talented offense, but I think Kansas City's defense can perform well again.

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Jacksonville’s offensive line concerns me. Left tackle Cam Robinson is suspended for the first four games of the season and the Jaguars are also replacing right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who signed with the Chiefs in free agency. Additionally, the injury bug has struck as guard Brandon Scherff and center Luke Fortner and are both questionable.

Last season, the Chiefs had the most quarterback pressures in the league (178) and the fifth-highest pressure rate (24.9%). This resulted in them having the second-most sacks (55). Now, defensive end George Karlaftis is looking to take a jump in his second year. Kansas City also added another defensive end, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, in the first round of the draft. Those two led the team in pressures in Week 1.

Maybe the interior of Jacksonville' offensive line will play, but I can’t imagine they'll be at 100%. With Chris Jones returning, I feel there's reason to worry about Jacksonville's line protecting Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence hasn't held up well under pressure. Out of 19 QBs who took 50% of their team’s dropbacks last year, Lawrence ranked 17th in PFF passing grade with an atrocious 29.5. On those dropbacks, he was tied for the league high with eight interceptions. If the Chiefs can get to Lawrence, I think they will have success.

Lawrence struggled against the Colts in Week 1. The Jaguars averaged -0.22 EPA per play and had just a 66.7% series conversion rate.

Jacksonville's rushing game was basically non-existent as neither Travis Etienne nor Tank Bigsby had a good day. Etienne averaged 4.3 yards per carry over 18 carries, while Bigsby had seven carries for 13 yards.

The Jags will need to step up to outscore Kansas City, and that'll be tough to do with a battered offensive line.

In the end, I think this sets up well for Kansas City to get back on track. The Chiefs have a three-day rest advantage and are getting back key contributors in Jones and Kelce. 

Indianapolis wasn't able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s O-line woes, but I think Kansas City will do so. 

Jacksonville scored just 17 and 20 points in the two matchups against K.C. in 2022. I think we'll see something similar as the Chiefs defensive front will wreak havoc while the offense rebounds.

Be sure to shop around using our NFL odds page, because there are Chiefs -3 numbers available at multiple books.