Colts vs. Texans Betting Pick for Thursday Night Football: NFL System Pointing to Over/Under Value

Colts vs. Texans Betting Pick for Thursday Night Football: NFL System Pointing to Over/Under Value article feature image
Credit:

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) and defensive end Margus Hunt (92)

  • The over/under for tonight's Thursday Night Football showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans opened with a line of 46.5.
  • The public is unsurprisingly betting on the Over 46.5 at a 65% clip, but despite that, the odds haven't moved at all.
  • Our NFL model picks out the optimal way to bet tonight's over/under based on thousands of historical data points

Tonight’s Colts vs. Texans game on Thursday Night Football is a massive one for the AFC South. Both teams currently sit at 6-4, so the winner will take a one-game lead in the division with just just five weeks to go in the NFL season.

While many expected Houston to be in the running for a divisional crown, Indy has to be considered a surprise after the sudden the retirement of Andrew Luck prior to the start of the regular season.

The Texans are a 3.5-point home favorites for this matchup and 64% of bettors expect them to cover the spread.

However, when it comes to historical betting value, our NFL Pro Systems actually point to an over/under angle with a 62.3% win rate since 2005.

Let’s look at what history says about tonight’s Colts vs. Texans Thursday Night Football matchup.

Colts vs. Texans Betting Pick for Thursday Night Football

According to our Divisional Unders Pro System, late-season games (those defined as Weeks 11-17) between divisional opponents tend to go under the closing total, especially in matchups expected to be higher-scoring (defined by totals of 44.5-60).

This situation has produced a stellar 182-110-3 (62.3%) win rate since 2005. In addition, this Pro System has been profitable in each of the past eight seasons, showing that it also provides consistent year-to-year results.

There are currently two other matches for this system in Week 12, so be sure to sign up for Action Pro to receive real-time matches for every NFL Pro System, including this one.

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