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The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight on NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from Huntington Bank Park in Cleveland, Ohio, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream on Prime Video.
The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (Steelers -2.5), with an over/under of 37.5. The Steelers are -142 on the moneyline and the Browns are +120 underdogs.
Continue below for our Steelers vs Browns picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, moneyline, over/under, and two props.
Steelers vs Browns Picks, Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs Browns Odds
- Steelers vs Browns Moneyline: Steelers -142, Browns +120
- Steelers vs Browns Total: 37.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Steelers vs Browns Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-120), Browns +2.5 (-102)
TNF Odds via FanDuel — for the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 4 Odds & Action Report.
Steelers vs Browns Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
The Browns are a surprising 2-1 through three games, but I’m still not sold. In my mind, the true reflection of their level this year is the 24-point Week 1 loss to the Jaguars more than wins over the Panthers and Bucs, who are a combined 1-5 on the season and are probably just bad teams at this point.
Our Week 4 Luck Rankings reflect that as well, with the Browns coming in as the third-luckiest team in the NFL, as they’re expected wins so far is less than one.
While the Steelers have arguably been lucky as well, their win over the Bengals was a bit more convincing. Aaron Rodgers has been solid and the run game is functional, but the real key is their defense.
Deshaun Watson has played well, but he’s had plenty of clean pockets against below average defensive fronts the last two weeks. In Week 1, against a Jaguars team that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate, the Browns scored just 10 points and Watson took five sacks while throwing his only turnover of the season.
The Steelers have an even better pass rush – fifth in adjusted line yards – and should be able to shut down this Browns offense, allowing them to cover a 2.5-point spread fairly easily.
Steelers vs Browns Moneyline Pick
By Nick Galaida
The Browns escaped with a win against the Panthers in Week 3, but they didn't do much to earn that victory. Their scoring drives in that game went for 18 yards (FG), 40 yards (TD), 44 yards (FG), and a game-winning 65-yard touchdown drive that was extended by a defensive pass interference penalty.
Deshaun Watson played well in Week 2, but he had only 67 passing yards with 11:35 remaining in the game against a Panthers defense that was playing without multiple starters.
This is a tough spot for the Browns, who also have a rookie head coach. Per Clevta, first-time head coaches are 20-40 straight up (SU) since 2000 in their first Thursday Night Football game.
Pick: Steelers Moneyline (-142)
Steelers vs Browns Over/Under Pick
Despite a high-scoring affair in Pittsburgh on Sunday in the Steelers’ win over the Bengals, I do not foresee many points being put up on the board in this game.
Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy has implemented a system that has Aaron Rodgers dropping back to pass at a higher rate than a season ago, and more specifically, he is pushing the ball down the field significantly more often.
In fact, Rodgers has not attempted throws 10 or more yards down the field at this high of a rate since 2011. In order to allow these types of passing concepts to develop, Rodgers has to hold the ball a tick longer — and that is simply not going to be an effective approach against the Browns, who have generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL over their last two games at 46%.
Cleveland halted Bryce Young’s red-hot start to the season and stymied Baker Mayfiend and the Bucs the week prior to that to the tune of 5.8 yards per pass attempt over those two contests. With the knowledge his defense can limit the passing attack of the Steelers, I expect Browns head coach Todd Monken to continue to try and manufacture easy completions for Deshaun Watson in what is essentially a highly conservative offensive approach.
Watson is getting the ball out of his hands quickly in an attempt to avoid a performance like he had in the season opener where he was sacked five times. This means the likelihood of explosive plays coming through the air is quite slim.
When combined with a rushing attack led by Quinshon Judkins — who is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry with a 26% success rate — I cannot envision the Browns exceeding the 18 points per game they've averaged through three games.
Pick: Under 38.5; Bet to Under 38
Deshaun Watson Props: Pass Attempts Over/Under
This line is a bit too low given the spot.
After looking like the worst QB in the league in Week 1, Deshaun Watson has looked like a halfway decent QB in the past two games. He has hit the over at this number in each of the past two games, and the Browns have been passing at an above-average rate this season.
Watson has a decent receiving corps around him with Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, Harold Fannin Jr., and Jerry Jeudy. The Steelers have been more susceptible on the ground, but they're passing at one of the highest rates in the league, which should increase the overall plays for the Browns.
I have Watson projected to hit the over at this number at a 60% clip.
Pick: Deshaun Watson Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime TD Prop
By Grant Neiffer
After the Week 1 game where he only three targets, Harold Fannin Jr. has been a focal point in the Browns' passing game the last two games, with 15 targets and a 25% target share.
Fannin, who had seven touchdowns last season, had two touchdowns last week as quarterback Deshaun Watson continues to show some signs of competent play.
The matchup isn't bad, and with the pace the Steelers have been playing this season, the Browns may have an extra drive or two. I have the true odds here around +250.
Pick: Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+295)
