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NFL Week 4 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football AFC North divisional tilt between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio.
Steelers vs. Browns will stream tonight on Amazon Prime Video at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Continue below for my Browns vs Steelers parlay, which includes picks for the game total and props for Jaylen Warren and KC Concepcion.
Browns vs Steelers Parlay
- Steelers -2.5 (-120, DraftKings)
- Jaylen Warren Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- KC Concepcion Over 3.5 Receptions (-144, DraftKings)
Parlay Odds: +330
Odds via DraftKings are subject to change*
Browns vs Steelers Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -148 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +124 |
Browns vs Steelers Preview
I'm starting my Week 4 TNF SGP with Steelers -2.5.
Pittsburgh got its offense on track in a 30-27 win over the Bengals in Week 3. The key was Jaylen Warren, who featured as the bellcow with Rico Dowdle sidelined. Warren delivered in a big way, rushing for 127 yards on only 17 carries.
While the Browns have won two in a row, they could have easily lost each of those games. I'm not ready to call them an improved team.
Remember, it wasn't long ago that they were viewed as one of the worst teams in the NFL. I don't think we're past that stage yet, so getting the Steelers at only -2.5 feels appealing here. I need to see more from Deshaun Watson for me to believe he's truly improved.
Speaking of Warren, we'll add his Over 73.5 rushing yards.
This is a popular prop that has got a lot of steam. I hit it earlier this week at 65.5, but I still like the number here.
For one, Rico Dowdle is out for another game, so Warren will see plenty of rushing volume. The Browns have also struggled defending the run, allowing 80+ rushing yards to both Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving in the last two weeks.
In a game where the Steelers are likely to play with a lead, Warren should get 18+ carries, which should be enough to eclipse this number.
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I'll finish it off with KC Concepcion Over 3.5 receptions.
The rookie wideout is primarily targeted in the short-to-underneath passing game, which means that he sees plenty of catchable balls. We saw him targeted nine times last week, but Watson wasn't able to connect with him as Concepcion was limited to two catches.
But in the previous two games, Concepcion had four and six receptions, so 3.5 is a low bar for him. Bet on Browns head coach Todd Monken putting in some quick-hitters to Concepcion to try to neutralize the Steelers' pass rush.
Browns vs Steelers Same-Game Parlay
- Steelers -2.5 (-120, DraftKings)
- Jaylen Warren Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- KC Concepcion Over 3.5 Receptions (-144, DraftKings)
