Cowboys vs Eagles Prediction: Odds, Spread, Over/Under Picks
Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts.
Cowboys vs Eagles Prediction: Odds, Spread, Over/Under Picks (Week 9)
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 Even | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Cowboys vs. Eagles odds for NFL Week 9 have Philadelphia installed as 3-point home favorites. The over/under has settled at 46.5 at most sportsbooks as of 3:45 p.m. ET Sunday.
Obviously, this is a huge rivalry matchup in the NFC East. A win for the Cowboys (5-2) would pull them even in the loss column with the Eagles (7-1), who haven't had their bye week yet. Because of injuries and rested starters, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have only faced off once in their careers. That came in September 2021, a matchup that ended as a comfortable home Dallas win.
Prescott has had success against the Eagles in his career, going 8-3 against the spread. Notably, he's the only quarterback who's 3-0 ATS or better vs. Nick Sirianni, per Evan Abrams.
Let's preview Dallas-Philadelphia and get into my Cowboys vs. Eagles prediction and picks on the spread and total.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Eagles match up statistically:
Cowboys vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown (via FTN Fantasy)
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 17 | 18 | |
| Pass DVOA | 13 | 23 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 1 |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 7 | 3 | |
| Pass DVOA | 9 | 3 | |
| Rush DVOA | 5 | 9 |
The Eagles' secondary has turned in a bunch of uneven performances this season. When the defensive line has been able to generate consistent pressure, like in the second half against the Rams and the Dolphins, it's helped to cover up the emerging holes in the secondary. Yet, when the Eagles went up against Sam Howell twice, the most sacked QB in the NFL, Howell had two of the best games of his career and scored 31 points in both games.
Eagles outside corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay are getting up there in age at 30 and 32 years old, respectively. One underrated concern for the Eagles defense this year was potential regression from those two as they age.
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The Eagles' issues in coverage are reflected in PFF grades as well. Philadelphia ranks 22nd in coverage and the slot and linebacker issues remain a problem.
Prescott is elite at using the middle of the field because of his excellent processing ability, and that's the glaring hole for this Eagles defense. Philadelphia is elite against the run and Dallas' struggles there are real. But the Cowboys' early down rush rate has been steadily declining for weeks.
Dallas has upped the pre-snap motion. Prescott's aDOT is considerably lower than last season and his tight-window throw rate is lower too. The biggest problem for both of these offenses has been in the red zone and that's sure to be a key theme in this game, but I don't think either will have much trouble with successfully moving the ball.
The Cowboys offense has been using CeeDee Lamb split wide more often of late, but he could move into the slot to better exploit the Eagles in this matchup.
Bet Dallas vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel
Hurts had one of his best games as a passer against the Commanders, but he’ll face a considerably better Cowboys secondary and pass rush.
Dallas is top five in all pass rush metrics and the coverage unit has mostly held up since losing Trevon Diggs. The Cowboys have also gotten a breakout campaign from DaRon Bland.
The Eagles' offense has dominated against man coverage of late because DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are difficult to guard 1-on-1. The Eagles have had some issues against the blitz at times, but the Cowboys' aggressive style of defense will force the Eagles to be more explosive and less methodical.
Hurts had 11 carries for 21 yards in the win against Miami and followed it with four carries for six yards against Washington. If he’s not going to run the ball because of the knee issue, the Eagles' clear rush offense advantage against this Dallas front becomes harder to exploit.
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Eagles and Cowboys offenses are top seven in every meaningful metric of success.
Philadelphia isn't great on first down, but the Eagles have a huge advantage in high-leverage, short-distance late downs because of the brotherly shove. As a result, the Eagles and Cowboys both rank in the top seven offensively in EPA per drive and series success rate.
Throw in some explosives from the Cowboys' aggression defensively and the Eagles' holes in the secondary and you have a recipe for points. I'd bet the over at 47 or lower and Dallas at +3 or better.
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