Saints vs Lions Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 13 Betting Pick
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Saints vs Lions Odds, Prediction
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
The latest Saints vs. Lions odds for NFL Week 13 have Detroit installed as 4.5-point favorites on the spread with a game total of 47.5.Unsurprisingly, the public is backing the Lions to cover. My NFL pick for this game will be fading Detroit, though.
The Lions enter Week 13 with 10 days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, that game saw them lose to the Packers in what was probably their second-worst performance of the season. The Saints are also coming off a crushing loss to the Falcons. A win in that game would have given them first place in the NFC South — still, New Orleans and Atlanta have identical records at 5-6.
Let's preview Detroit-New Orleans and get into my Saints vs. Lions prediction.
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Saints vs Lions Pick
While the Lions are still in good shape with a sizable division lead, there is real cause for concern following their loss to the Packers. There have been underlying issues with the Lions all season — especially on defense — but they have found ways to keep winning, which has kept those issues at bay.
The Lions defense is 10th in overall defensive DVOA, but they have not played a particularly hard schedule. They have done well against sub-par offenses — like Atlanta and Carolina — but have struggled when stepping up in competition. Detroit gave up 37 points to Seattle in Week 2, 38 to Baltimore in Week 7 and 38 to Los Angeles in Week 10. Over the last two weeks, the Lions have given up 26 points to Chicago and 29 to Green Bay.
Detroit's defense is being exposed in multiple ways. The Bears just ran all over them with relative ease. The Packers and Jordan Love decided to just sling it deep. That is concerning as it allows opposing teams multiple avenues of attack rather than targeting a specific matchup.
That being said, the Saints offense is not on the level of those teams that lit up Detroit. However, they are 10th in rush offense DVOA so they do have a real strength with Alvin Kamara and the wild card that is Taysom Hill. Chris Olave also seems to be coming alive, which is great news for the Saints. He's a legit No. 1, but had been in a bit of a rut.
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The Lions have skated by in spots this season whereas the Saints have been quite unlucky.
Last week, New Orleans outgained Atlanta by nearly 50 yards and won the time-of-possession battle but couldn’t find a way to win. According to Action Network's Luck Rankings, the Lions have been the seventh-luckiest team this season while the Saints have been the total opposite, all the way down at 30th. That could mean the Lions are due for negative regression while the Saints are due to have some things break their way.
This will be Derek Carr’s second start back after missing time with an injury. He struggled against Atlanta, going 24-for-38 for 308 yards and an interception. Uninspiring, but against a Lions defense that can be exposed, a rebound game is possible.
The Saints defense has also been rock solid — they are seventh in opponent yards per pass attempt. This is important against a Lions offense that's largely based on Jared Goff being able to stretch the field with deep shots to open up the rest of the playbook.
Detroit is sixth in offensive yards per pass attempt and has won games by stretching the field and then switching to the run game and short pass game when opposing safeties start dropping deeper.
Saints vs. Lions
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Saints offense seems to be moving in the right direction and they should be able to move the ball against a Detroit defense due for regression. Factor in New Orleans' defense and the home-field advantage and it should be tough for Goff and the Lions to match their usual standard on offense.
New Orleans should be able to keep it close and have a chance to outright win late.
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