Bears vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, Prediction | Week 9
Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa
- The Dolphins are 4.5-point favorites against the Bears.
- Chicago's offense faces a tough test in keeping up with the Miami attack.
- Landon Silinsky breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Bears vs Dolphins Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 45.5 -118o / -104u | +168 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 45.5 -118o / -104u | -200 |
Two teams that were quite active at the trade deadline and are also coming off bad losses in Week 8 meet on Sunday afternoon as the Miami Dolphins visit the Chicago Bears.
The Dolphins are absolutely going for it this season. They traded for star edge rusher Bradley Chubb and then signed him to a five-year, $110 million extension. In the deal, (along with draft picks) Miami sent running back Chase Edmonds to Denver. That is important to note because the Dolphins were not done there, as they acquired running back Jeff Wilson Jr. from the 49ers.
The Chubb addition is extremely important as the Dolphins rank 25th in the NFL in quarterback pressure rate. With the way their secondary has played this season, they absolutely needed to bolster the front seven.
As for the Bears they traded for wide receiver Chase Claypool, which was a surprising move after a flurry of moves to gut the defense. They sent stud linebacker Roquan Smith to the Ravens after last week shipping edge rusher Robert Quinn to the Eagles. Obviously this team has waved the white flag on the season and is looking towards the future.
What exactly does that mean for this week?
Dolphins vs. Bears Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Dolphins and Bears match up statistically:
Dolphins vs. Bears DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 5 | 25 | |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 18 | |
| Rush DVOA | 19 | 28 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 29 | 26 | |
| Pass DVOA | 31 | 29 | |
| Rush DVOA | 18 | 9 | |
We know the Dolphins want to throw the ball, as they sit seventh in the NFL in pass play percentage. The Bears, however, are pretty stingy against the pass. They've allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards and the third-fewest attempts on the season. This is partly due to the fact that their run defense is so bad, but is an impressive mark nonetheless.
We will see how much Wilson eats into Raheem Mostert's workload this week in his first game with the team. Against the Lions last week, not only did Edmonds siphon off some of Mostert's carries, but they even gave Myles Gaskin four carries and three targets. The team has clearly lost a bit of faith in Mostert as their lead back.
Dolphins -4.5 | Bears +4.5
Regardless of what the Bears do well on defense, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the catalysts for this offense — specifically Hill, who went bonkers again last week, posting 12 catches for 188 yards on a whopping 14 targets. This marks the third time in five games that Hill has eclipsed 160 yards receiving. He's truly an unguardable matchup nightmare.
The Bears got obliterated by the Cowboys last week in what was an obvious let-down spot just six days after beating the Patriots in Foxboro on Monday Night Football. They did do a lot of things well on offense against Dallas, however, and Justin Fields continues to establish himself as a legit NFL starting quarterback.
Khalil Herbert has created a timeshare between him and David Montgomery with his recent play, and it's hard for the Bears to keep him off the field at this point.
My problem with this spot is how the Bears roster will react to the recent Roquan Smith trade. He was arguably their best player on either side of the ball, and trading him signals that this team has given up.
Another thing of note is that in the three home games the Bears have played this season, the totals have been 19, 43 and 29. There is something Soldier Field that just isn't conducive to high scoring affairs.
Betting Picks
My initial lean is that this total is too high. Chicago's pass defense is not like Detroit's and the Dolphins will not be able to move the ball through the air with the ease they did last week. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is sharp enough to know that the way to win against the Bears is to run on them, and I think the Dolphins' game plan will lean that way, ultimately leading to fewer plays and a running clock.
Also, despite the fact Fields has looked better as a passer in recent weeks, we know the Bears are a run-first football team. I believe this will be a slow pace game with both teams having some success on defense. Give me the under here.
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