The 10th Sunday of the 2025 NFL season will begin with a international neutral site matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts on November 9. Kickoff from Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany is set for 9:30 a.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
Our player props for this week's NFL Berlin Game are targeting Daniel Jones and Tyler Warren.
Let's dive into our two Falcons vs Colts player props for Sunday morning.
Falcons vs Colts Player Props
- Tyler Warren Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110; bet365)
- Daniel Jones Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-110; BetMGM)
Falcons vs Colts Prop Picks, Preview
Tyler Warren Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Brit Devine
The Falcons have given up a league-low total of just 176 yards receiving to tight ends through eight games. Prior to last week when Hunter Henry went for 51 yards, the highest total they had allowed all season to a single TE was 21 yards.
The Falcons have one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league in terms of total yards, allowing a league-low 1,398 yards (175 yards per game) through the air. Some of that is due to the opponents they have faced, but it's the lowest by a considerable margin, so it's safe to say they are doing something well — mainly getting to the QB, posting the sixth-highest pressure and sack rates in the NFL.
Warren has a target rate of just 15% on pass plays when Daniel Jones is pressured.
We are also starting to see Warren's target share in total dip over recent games compared to the start of the season. He is now at an 18.1% target share compared to 21.5% in his first four games. Over the past five weeks, his target share is just 15.8%.
Warren is good and could beat us, but everything is pointing to an under.
Pick: Tyler Warren Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Daniel Jones Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-110)
By Sean Koerner
Daniel JonesJones is having an MVP-type season on his new team, but last week was his first real flop, throwing three picks in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers.
I expect him to bounce back here, which should let the Colts lean more on Jonathan Taylor and the run game (and helping this prop).
The Falcons blitz at the highest rate in the league (46%), and Jones’ completion rate drops from 76% against four or fewer rushers to 55% against the blitz, so we should see more incompletions from him here.
The Falcons have allowed the fewest completions per game (16.5) and have yet to allow a QB to complete 21+ passes this season.
This will be Jones’ third outdoor game of the year, and with this one being played in Germany, where it should be fairly chilly, his expected completion rate should dip compared to if this were played in a dome environment in Indy or Atlanta. I’m projecting him closer to 20.4 completions with around a 59% chance to stay under 21.5.
People hate betting unders because they feel like there’s nothing to root for. That’s not really true.
Here, we’re rooting for Taylor to have a big game on the ground, Jones scrambles, quick TD drives, and long, clock-killing possessions from Atlanta.
The people who think this is just about sitting there puckered up every time Jones drops back rooting for an incompletion are making it miserable on themselves. Early completions are fine if they help the Colts build a lead and lean on the run later.
Pick: Daniel Jones Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-110)
Falcons vs Colts Prop Bets
- Tyler Warren Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110; bet365)
- Daniel Jones Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-110; BetMGM)
