Giants vs. Patriots Betting Odds & Picks: Can Tom Brady & Co. Cover?

Giants vs. Patriots Betting Odds & Picks: Can Tom Brady & Co. Cover? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Daniel Jones, Tom Brady

  • Can Tom Brady and the Patriots cover this massive Thursday Night Football spread?
  • Our staff breaks down the betting odds for Giants at Patriots, complete with picks.

Giants at Patriots Betting Odds & Picks

  • Patriots Spread: -17
  • Giants Spread: +17
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX/NFL Network

Odds as of Wednesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Patriots have played as massive favorites three times season. They’ve covered twice. Now they’re -17 for their Thursday Night Football showdown against the Giants.

New York’s offense, meanwhile, is a shell of its former self with a cluster of injuries to key playmakers.

So how should you bet this large spread? What about the over/under?

Our staff breaks down every angle of this matchup, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds and more.

Giants-Patriots Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

The Patriots have their fair share of injuries. Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) has been ruled out while Rex Burkhead (foot), Julian Edelman (chest) and Josh Gordon (knee) have all been limited in practice and are questionable. The only difference is Gordon or Edelman haven’t missed any game time with their respective injuries, so Burkhead is the bigger question mark among the three.

The Giants, meanwhile, are in shambles. Sterling Shepard (concussion), Wayne Gallman (concussion), Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Evan Engram (knee) have all been ruled out. That’s essentially their whole starting offense. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots Pass Defense vs. Giants Pass Offense

The Giants travel to New England on a short week with a rookie quarterback and a long list of major offensive injuries.

Not an ideal situation.

The Patriots have the best overall pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders while Jason McCourty and Jonathan Jones have the No. 1 and 4 overall defensive grades for cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus.

New England doesn’t allow opponents to generate a passing game.

Barkley’s, Gallman’s and Engram’s absences will put even more pressure on the Giants’ receiving corps to sustain drives. And with Shepard also out, they’ll need to rely on veteran Golden Tate, who returned last week from suspension, veteran Cody Latimer and rookie Darius Slayton.

The Patriots have allowed just 13.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, the lowest in the NFL. This will be the Giants receivers’ most challenging battle of the season. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -17
  • Projected Total: 43

This is the fourth time this season the Patriots are favored by more than two touchdowns. So far, they’re 2-1 against the spread in this spot.

Sportsbooks are surely going to be rooting for the Giants to cover, but those prospects got tougher when Barkley, Gallman, Shepard and Engram were ruled out — a cluster of injuries that can impact the spread quite a bit. However, a spread as high as -17 is a harder to move off of because it hinges more on how much mercy the Patriots will have in the second half, which can cause a backdoor cover.

These aren’t the type of bets I like to take part in — we saw this very effect in Week 3 when Jarrett Stidham came in relief of Tom Brady and threw a pick-six that allowed the Jets to backdoor cover.

After opening at 46.5, this total has fallen all the way to 41 due to windy and potentially wet conditions. Sean Koerner

Editor’s note: Koerner initially liked the over, but the above blurb has since been updated to reflect the weather.

Expert Picks

Randle: Patriots -17

The Patriots have the NFL’s best overall defense and face a rookie quarterback at home in primetime.

While they’re only 3-2 against the spread, including a disappointing backdoor cover by the Jets in Week 3, there are just not enough available offensive weapons for the Giants to keep this game close.

There’s still always the threat of a backdoor cover, but the Patriots defense has been playing at such a superior level that I’m comfortable giving the large spread. Even if they lean on the run throughout the second half, their running backs will continue to generate enough offense to cover the big number.

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