The Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) and Denver Broncos (11-2) will meet in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Packers are 1-point favorites over the Broncos on the spread (Packers -1), with the over/under set at 42.5 points. Green Bay is a -115 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Denver is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Packers vs Broncos predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, December 14.
Packers vs Broncos Prediction, Picks
- Packers vs Broncos pick: Packers -1 (-110)
My Broncos vs. Packers best bet is on Green Bay to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Broncos Odds for NFL Week 15
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos NFL Preview
On the surface, this looks like a matchup between two pretty good teams. Denver has a good home-field advantage — so why should you fade the Broncos? Schematically, this is a big edge for the Packers.
The Broncos defense plays single-high safety at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL at about 55%. Packers QB Jordan Love ranks first in EPA per dropback against single-high coverage; he's also first in total EPA against single high and sixth in success rate against single high among 39 qualified quarterbacks.
What does the Broncos defense play even more than play single-high coverage? They play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL.
Against man coverage, Love ranks first in EPA per dropback, second in total EPA, third in success rate, and second in total touchdown passes. He can beat this type of coverage and he's getting some reinforcements with Jayden Reed back in the fold.
The big loss, of course, is injured tight end Tucker Kraft. He is great against man coverage, especially single-high looks, but you know who was even more efficient (obviously on a smaller sample)?
Luke Musgrave.
This might be a game where the Packers can unleash him a little bit. The Packers tight ends have been splitting snaps lately, but I really like this spot for Musgrave.
Love tends to thrive later in the season. In the first 10 weeks of the season, Love and the Packers are 12-13-1 straigth up (SU). From Week 11 forward, he is 16-7 SU, per Evan Abrams.
Also, if you're going to beat the Broncos, you're probably going to have to convert in the red zone and on third down against a Denver defense that leads the league in those two metrics.
The Packers' offense ranks first on third down and second in the red zone, so strength vs. strength here.
Green Bay is capable of punching the ball in the end zone against the Broncos more than most teams, and that's important because almost every Denver game is a one-score game. A handful of Broncos games have had a differential of a field goal or less, too.
Although the Packers have had kicking issues this year, kicker Brandon McManus played in Denver for a good portion of his career. I'm hoping that pays off in this spot.
Green Bay is a luck side for us this week. Luck sides this year are 60.5% against the spread (ATS) at 23-15, covering by 2.6 points per game.
Since 2005, only eight eight teams have closed as underdogs on a 10-plus game win streak (like the Broncos): those teams went 2-5-1 ATS. This is the first since the 49ers and Bengals did it in the 2023 playoffs, and both teams lost outright.
Packers vs Broncos Betting Predictions, Analysis
I also like the matchup on the other side. The Packers play a lot of zone coverage, and Denver QB Bo Nix struggles against zone.
Nix did a decent job last game against the Raiders. However, if you take a closer look, he still had to complete 31 passes just to get 212 yards.
Nix is 22nd in EPA per dropback against zone, eighth versus man. He is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt against zone coverage, ranking 35th out of 39 qualifiers. Against man, he's middle of the pack at 18th.
This is just a perfect schematic matchup for the Packers. They should be able to find the end zone against this elite Denver defense more than most.
Packers vs Broncos Best Bet
- Packers -1 (-110)
Packers vs Broncos Betting Trends
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