The first head-coaching change of the 2025 NFL season came Monday, when the Tennessee Titans parted ways with Brian Callahan after a rocky 4-19 start to his tenure. Veteran assistant Mike McCoy steps in as interim head coach, and he’ll debut Sunday against the Patriots in Nashville — where the Titans enter as 7-point underdogs.
A Titans upset would be historic. No interim coach has won outright as a home underdog of +7 or higher since Romeo Crennel’s Chiefs stunned the Packers in 2011. Since 2000, underdogs of above 4 pts at home in this spot are 1-6 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS).
The Callahan Collapse
Brian Callahan’s 4-19 ATS record was the worst for any head coach in the Super Bowl era with at least five games coached. Among the bottom tier of recent firings, here is the worst ATS win pct for a fired head coach:
Since 2000, here is the worst ATS record for a fired head coach:
2025 Titans, Brian Callahan: 4-19 ATS
2023 Panthers, Frank Reich: 2-8-1 ATS
2015 Titans, Ken Whisenhunt: 6-16-1 ATS
2021 Jaguars, Urban Meyer: 4-9 ATS
Given that record, bettors might welcome the reset. But the Titans face another dubious streak: they haven’t covered a home spread since November 2024 — 10 straight ATS losses, tying the longest home ATS drought since the merger. No team has ever lost eleven straight.
Another note on the Titans, Tennessee hasn't covered the spread at home since November of 2024, losing ten straight ATS. Since the merger in 1970, six teams, including the Titans this year, have lost 10 consecutive home games ATS. No team has lost 11 straight home games ATS.
How Teams Historically Respond
Looking at two-plus decades of data since 2000, teams that change head coaches midseason typically see a modest bump in performance. Before the firing, those teams combined for a 27.9% SU win rate and 37.3% ATS record. Afterward, those marks improved to 33.3% SU and 49% ATS — not a miracle turnaround, but enough to draw betting interest in a team “with something to prove.”
Since 2000, underdogs of 7+ pts are 4-14 SU and 9-9 ATS with a new head coach after previous one was fired/resigned. Last upset came in 2015 after 5 straight losses. The upset came from Ken Whisenhunt and the Titans against Sean Payton and the Saints.
The improvement often reflects short-term energy rather than systemic change. Players respond to the new voice, and opponents lack film on the new schemes or play-calling tendencies. That element of surprise tends to fade after a few weeks.
Who Finds Success After the Switch
History shows that defensive-minded interim coaches have fared better overall, going 53.6% ATS over the remainder of the season, compared to 45.3% ATS for offensive-minded ones since 2000. Mike McCoy, with his offensive background, will aim to reverse that narrative — and he’ll do it against a Patriots team with their head coach Mike Vrabel, who coached the Titans previously ironically enough.
Experience also matters. Interim coaches with prior NFL head-coaching experience are 55% ATS in their first game compared to just 45% for those without. McCoy, who previously led the Chargers, fits the former group — a small but notable edge.
Biggest Turnaround Stories
A few teams over the years have made immediate noise after a midseason firing:
- 2008: Mike Singletary went 5-4 SU (6-3 ATS) after replacing Mike Nolan with the 49ers (was 2-5 SU)
- 2010: Jason Garrett led the Cowboys to a 5-3 SU and ATS mark after Wade Phillips’ exit (was 1-7 SU)
- 2018: Gregg Williams guided the Browns to 5-3 SU and ATS after Hue Jackson’s firing (was 2-5-1 SU)
- 2023: Antonio Pierce’s Raiders finished 5-4 SU and 7-1-1 ATS after taking over from Josh McDaniels (was 3-5 SU)
These examples show that a spark is possible — but rare.
