The Baltimore Ravens' pivot to Trey Hendrickson after their failed Maxx Crosby trade has sent shockwaves through NFL prediction markets, with Kalshi traders now pricing the Cincinnati Bengals star moving to Baltimore at 82 cents (82% probability), while the Colts are a distant second at only 19 cents.
The dramatic market shift comes after the Raiders announced Tuesday evening that Baltimore had "backed out" of their previously agreed trade for Crosby, who reportedly failed his physical following January meniscus surgery. The Athletic's Dianna Russini confirmed the Ravens were pivoting immediately to pursue Hendrickson as their Plan B pass rusher.
Kalshi's markets show significant trading volume around Hendrickson's future, with the Ravens contract generating 8,733 contracts in volume and maintaining the highest probability at 82%. As of this update, the Ravens option has attracted 14,298 contracts in volume — the highest of any destination — suggesting major money is flowing toward a potential Baltimore move despite the previous 25% implied odds before the Crosby deal.
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Trey Hendrickson Landing Spot Odds
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
The failed Crosby trade represents a stunning reversal for Baltimore, which had never before traded two first-round picks for a single player. According to reports, the Ravens had already agreed in principle to the blockbuster deal before Crosby's physical complications derailed negotiations.
For Cincinnati, losing Hendrickson would create a massive hole in their pass rush opposite Sam Hubbard. The 29-year-old recorded 17.5 sacks last season and has been one of the NFL's most consistent edge rushers since joining the Bengals in 2021.
Other potential destinations show minimal market interest, with most teams priced below 10% on Kalshi. The market activity suggests traders view this as Baltimore successfully pivoting from their Crosby disappointment to land another elite pass rusher in the AFC North.
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Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
