Jameis Winston Player Props: Expert Targeting Saints QB’s Pass Attempts vs Buccaneers
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameis Winston.
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Jameis Winston Pass Attempts
|Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
|Buccaneers vs. Saints
|Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
New Orleans passed on 67% of plays last week in Atlanta, which ranked eighth in the NFL. Last season, the Saints were 30th in that category. Winston did throw 16 of his 34 attempts in the fourth quarter for an emotional come-from-behind win.
Despite the late pass-heavy efforts, the Saints still finished 19th in 4for4's model of pass rate above expectation model, which indicates there's still room for positive regression.
This week's game against the Buccaneers should be a competitive one. Tampa Bay was notorious for inviting opposing teams to throw last season, ranking first in the NFL by allowing a league-high 43.3 quarterback pass attempts per game. That's 8.4 more than the 34.9 NFL average.
The biggest news surrounding this game is that the Saints will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. Missing him will be detrimental to any plan in establishing effective runs this week and will require more passes to move the chains in sets of downs.
I like the revenge factor for Jameis Winston against his former team. It is safe to assume the former No. 1 pick will need to take a step up without Kamara, which means he will need to be aggressive in the air.
With a depleted backfield and improved wide receivers, I expect Winston to throw 34+ times. I would bet this line up to -130.
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