Josh Allen matched a mark that had stood since Jim Kelly’s playing days, and Polymarket’s MVP prediction market took notice. Before we dive in, check out our Polymarket review, grab the Polymarket promo code, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis heading into Buffalo’s Week 7.
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Allen Throws for 255 Yards, 2 TDs in 33-30 Win Over Las Vegas
Buffalo needed every one of its 33 points to hold off the Raiders on Sunday in Las Vegas. The game was tied at halftime and tied again deep in the fourth quarter before James Cook’s go-ahead touchdown run and a late Tyler Bass field goal sealed it.
Allen finished 23 of 33 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a 12-yard strike to Keon Coleman that turned out to be the headline of the day. The win pushes the Bills to 5-1, keeps them a game clear of New England atop the AFC East, and sends them into their bye with momentum, even if their pass defense, which allowed over 300 yards to Kirk Cousins, still needs work.
The Record He Tied: Jim Kelly’s Franchise Passing-TD Mark, Explained
That touchdown to Coleman was the 258th passing score of Allen’s career across regular season and playoff games, pulling him level with Jim Kelly atop the Bills’ all-time list. Kelly built that total during his Hall of Fame run in Buffalo, which ended after the 1996 season; meaning the record had stood for close to 3 decades before Allen caught up to it Sunday.
Allen already owns the franchise mark for total touchdowns scored, but matching Kelly specifically through the air carries its own weight in Buffalo, where Kelly’s 4 Super Bowl trips still define the measuring stick for every Bills quarterback who follows.
What the MVP Market Looks Like After Buffalo’s 5-1 Start
On Polymarket, Allen sits at 31%, up 8% on the week, giving him clear separation from the field. Brock Purdy is next at 23.1%, down 17% after a rough stretch, followed by Patrick Mahomes at 9.3% and Joe Burrow at 5.8%.
Allen’s record-tying performance didn’t single-handedly move those numbers: Purdy’s drop has more to do with San Francisco’s own week, but it reinforced a trend that’s been building all month; traders see Allen as the front-runner, with real distance between him and everyone else.
| Player | MVP Odds (Polymarket) | Weekly Move |
| Josh Allen | 31% | +8% |
| Brock Purdy | 23% | -17% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9% | -12% |
| Joe Burrow | 5.8% | -15% |
Bills’ AFC and Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 7
Buffalo’s AFC title odds on Polymarket moved in the same direction as Allen’s MVP number this week, with the Bills holding the top spot in the conference and the Chiefs trailing close behind. Baltimore and Jacksonville remain in the mix but have fallen well back, with the Ravens dropping sharply after a difficult stretch. That positioning lines up with where Buffalo sits in Super Bowl pricing too, among the handful of teams traders treat as real contenders, rather than the long shots further down the board.
How a Milestone Game Like This Moves Prediction Markets
Record-tying performances like Allen’s rarely change what a quarterback is actually doing on the field, but they do change how visible that performance becomes. A nationally discussed storyline tends to nudge award markets in the short term, even when the underlying stats move only slightly. The bigger test for Buffalo’s MVP and conference pricing will come after the bye, when the schedule picks back up and the defense’s issues either get fixed or start showing up in the win column.
