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The Dallas Cowboys (2-3) and Green Bay Packers (3-2) clash tonight in the Week 6 edition of Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Packers are 1.5-point favorites over the Cowboys on the spread, with the over/under set at 53.5 total points. Green Bay is a -118 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Dallas is a +100 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Packers predictions for Sunday Night Football.
Cowboys vs Packers Prediction
- Cowboys vs Packers pick: Over 53.5 Points (-105)
My Cowboys vs. Packers best bet is the total to go over 53.5 points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Cowboys vs Packers Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
- Cowboys vs Packers spread: Cowboys +1.5, Packers -1.5
- Cowboys vs Packers total: Over/Under 53.5
- Cowboys vs Packers moneyline: Cowboys +100, Packers -118
Cowboys vs Packers NFL Sunday Night Football Preview
Sunday Night Football features two teams we’ve seen plenty of variance from this season. Handicapping this game and picking a side confidently seems like a futile effort when factoring in the additional rest for Dallas, in addition to the volatile nature of both teams. This is the definition of a coin-flip game in my estimation — thus, we must look to the total in our search for the best value.
Prior to their disappointing loss at home to the Buccaneers, the Cowboys were involved in games averaging 58.5 points per game during the first four weeks of the season.
On Thursday Night Football in Week 5, undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels completed 76% of his passes as Tampa Bay achieved perfect balance against a weak Cowboys defensive unit — the Bucs rushed for 10 first downs and passed for 10 first downs. The Bucs averaged 6.2 yards per play against the league’s worst defense, according to simple yards per play metrics.
When these teams played a season ago, Jordan Love lit up the Dallas defense for 337 yards and three scores. No team in the league creates more explosive passing plays than the Packers. Love’s ultra-aggressive style combines perfectly with the skill sets of his top two targets: Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Furthermore, the Packers' passing offense is coming off its best performance of the season. The Cowboys rank 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and they play Cover 3 more than any other coverage at 39%.
In his 95 games as the playcaller in Green Bay, head coach Matt LaFleur has excelled at dissecting this coverage — his passing attacks have had a significant increase in EPA/play since 2021 when operating against Cover 3.
The two specific areas in which the Green Bay offense has struggled this season — rushing output and third-down conversion rate — should be alleviated by the fact that Dallas has surrendered a league-high 842 yards on the ground and allows opponents to convert a league-high 52% of third downs.
The outlook for the Cowboys offense is much brighter. They have scored points on a league-best 55% of their possessions this season.
Their success rate on offense ranks third, while the Packers defense is 27th by the same metric. Surface statistics such as yards per attempt allowed through the air might look impressive thus far for the Packers, but they have yet to be tested in a manner similar to what Dak Prescott and company bring to the table.
Green Bay has been fortunate to face three backups in Jalon Daniels, Carson Wentz and Tyson Bagent. The only two regular starting signal callers it faced were Geno Smith and Michael Penix Jr.
The Packers’ best cornerback, Keisean Nixon, is toughing out a groin injury and will play, but his numbers are indicative of a player not at 100%.
Nixon has allowed a 72% completion rate through five games, and his pass coverage grade is middle of the pack (39th), per Pro Football Focus.
Cowboys vs Packers Prediction, Betting Analysis
When these teams played last season, it concluded with a 40-40 tie. It stands to reason that the winner of this game will once again exceed 30 points. It is difficult to envision either offense being limited to under 24 points in this spot.
I am expecting a bounce-back performance from Dak Prescott and Brian Schottenheimer. The untested pass defense of the Packers may be exposed for the first time this year. Their pass rush has been respectable, generating pressure at 36%, but just 13% of the time have those been deemed quick pressures in under 2.5 seconds. This seems like a product of their lack of strength of schedule.
Backing the Dallas defense to get stops at key moments isn’t recommended either, which means we will simply be rooting for points in this entertaining Sunday night clash.
The likelihood of a 34-31 or 30-27 type affair feels like a foregone conclusion. Take the over up to 54.
Pick: Over 53.5 Points (-105)
