Justin Herbert Player Prop: Broncos vs Chargers Monday Night Football Pick
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert Longest Completion
|Prop||Justin Herbert Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards (-115)|
|Matchup||Broncos vs. Chargers|
|Day, Time||Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
Third-year pro Justin Herbert has been thrilling to watch since entering the league. The Chargers’ high-scoring offense has allowed him to achieve his longest completion prop in all five of his games, but all good things must come to an end.
It will be hard for Herbert to air the ball down the field against a Broncos defense that is currently second in DVOA against the pass. Denver’s stingy secondary has also allowed the second fewest 20-plus-yard receptions. Deebo Samuel is the one player to burn them thus far, with a 32-yard reception in Week 3.
Herbert’s weapons to beat this prop start with Mike Williams, who leads the Chargers with an 11.27 average depth of target (aDOT).
Williams has put up back-to-back 100-plus yard performances against below-average teams in the Texans (24th DVOA) and Browns (30th DVOA). Despite achieving a 38-yard longest reception in three of his last four games, oddsmakers only set his longest reception line at 24.5, and the juice is under, highlighting the difficult matchup.
He will now face his toughest test against emerging second-year talent Patrick Surtain II. The 2020 SEC Defensive Player of the Year ranks 12th in shadow rate and has an elite 88.1 coverage rate, ranking first among his position with a minimum of 100 snaps. Michael Pittman, Davante Adams and DK Metcalf are notable wide receivers who struggled when facing Surtain.
I circled all of Herbert’s 36-plus-yard completions and found two of the five catches that didn’t go to Williams went to Keenan Allen (hamstring, unlikely to play) and Jalen Guyton (out for the season). By removing Williams from the picture, the Chargers don’t really have another deep threat.