Raiders vs Dolphins Odds, Prediction: NFL Best Bet Week 11
Raiders vs. Dolphins odds have Miami installed as a 13.5-point home favorite with a game total of 46 for NFL Week 11, but that big number didn't scare me as I made my Raiders vs. Dolphins prediction.
The Raiders have been a nice story under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, going 2-0 with wins over the Giants and Jets and rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell under center. However, the Dolphins are a much bigger challenge compared to those punchless New York teams.
The Dolphins have manhandled inferior competition all season long, which is why I’m backing them as big favorites in NFL Week 11. Continue reading below for my Raiders vs. Dolphins prediction.
Raiders vs Dolphins Odds, Prediction
Raiders vs Dolphins Prediction
Some teams play down to the opposition, but the Dolphins do the complete opposite. They blow lesser competition out of the water.
Just look at what they’ve done so far.
The Dolphins have already covered twice as double-digit favorites, beating the Giants 31-16 laying 13 points followed by a 42-21 win over the Panthers as 14-point favorites. They also defeated the Patriots 31-17 as 8.5-point favorites, and who can forget their 70-20 thrashing as six-point favorites over the Broncos.
The Raiders were able to corral Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, but comparing those offenses to Miami’s is like comparing from a fast-food chain to a Michelin star restaurant. Miami leads the league on a per game basis in points (31.7), total offense (435.3) and passing (287.4), and ranks second in rushing (155.1). They are also a DVOA darlings, ranking first in overall offense, first in passing and third in rushing.
If that wasn’t enough, the Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare for the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa has been lights out on extended rest over his career, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.
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The bye also helped them get healthier as De’Von Achane (questionable) is expected to be activated off injured reserve. The rookie sensation has 38 carries for 460 yards and five touchdowns, averaging a ridiculous 12.1 yards per carry. He joins Raheem Mostert to form the best one-two punch in the league. The pair has a tasty matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (135.6).
Few defenses have been able to handle Miami’s offense, and there aren’t many reasons to think the Raiders will fare any better. Their best chance to win is to match Tagovailoa and company blow-for-blow. However, does anyone outside of Aiden O’Connell’s family think the rookie quarterback can keep up with the Dolphins?
The Raiders are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They rank 30th in DVOA and rank 31st in total offense, averaging 275.4 yards per game. They average 17.2 points per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the league and more than two-touchdowns less than the Dolphins average. Additionally, they’ve gone over their team total only once in 10 games, which is tied with the Patriots for the least in the NFL.
Finally, as if things weren’t hard enough for the Raiders, the Dolphins have a major advantage playing at home. They’re 37-20-3 against the spread since 2016, which is tops in the NFL over that span. Tagovailoa excels at Hard Rock Stadium, going 16-5 against the spread (ATS) compared to 9-12-1 on the road.
Raiders vs. Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
It would be a stunner if the Dolphins don’t dominate on Sunday. The biggest question is whether they can win by at least two touchdowns.
That hasn’t been much of a problem for Tagovailoa over his career — he’s 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been seven-plus-point underdogs twice this season and failed to cover both times by an average of 20 points.
I’m always worried about a late cover. However, I can’t ignore Miami’s eye-popping numbers against inferior competition, which is why I feel comfortable picking them to win by two touchdowns.
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