Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?

Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup? article feature image

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kenny Golladay

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Lions and Packers players scoring enough points to win your Week 6 fantasy football matchups.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Lions-Packers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 20 points from Kenny Golladay? He has an 10.9% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Lions: Matthew Stafford, Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson
  • Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Jimmy Graham

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers

Geronimo Allison, WR, Packers

Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions

Marvin Jones, WR, Lions


Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions

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