Lions vs. Packers Most Valuable TNF Prop Bets: Jared Goff, Marvin Jones Jr., David Montgomery
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Goff.
Lions vs. Packers Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
The Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms has a specific thesis as it pertains to the Lions' running back situation for Thursday Night Football vs. the Packers.
My colleague Sean Koerner also has a thesis regarding the Lions' third option and his prospects. That represents the best pick for tonight's game.
The last pick is on a Jared Goff over — but it doesn't directly involve his throwing ability.
Our algorithms for Lions vs. Packers are developed by our predictive analytics team, which make empirical predictions on every game with value and have created popular benchmark statistics like the Luck Rankings.
We wrote earlier today about the public's favorite picks.
- Marvin Jones Jr. under 14.5 receiving yards (-137)
- Jared Goff over 2.5 rushing yards (-115)
- David Montgomery under 14.5 rushing attempts (-130)
Lions vs. Packers
Where's The Value?
Koerner opines that Jones Jr. is primed for yet another disappointing game, having already been usurped on the depth chart by Kalif Raymond, dropping to the Lions' No. 3 option.
Jones saw a season-low 29% routes run rate in Week 3 and has failed to draw a single target over the past two games. In a game that could see Jared Goff under pressure more than usual, I don't expect him to have enough time to go through his progressions to get to Jones.
The easier matchup for the Lions will be over the middle of the field with Packers LB De'Vondre Campbell out. Look for Goff to lean on St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs even more in this game. I'd also expect Josh Reynolds and Raymond to see most of the targets at Lions WRs that don't go to St. Brown.
Koerner projects Jones Jr. at closer to 11.5 yards tonight. The best market price is with Caesars as of Thursday afternoon.
Meanwhile, our algorithms project Goff to finish with closer to five yards on the ground. The best market price there is with DraftKings.
And the models also think that the Lions will begin their full transition to first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs on Thursday. Out of necessity, they did so last week in a 20-6 victory over the Falcons — but only because incumbent David Montgomery was injured. But Gibbs showed all the qualities that justified his high post on the Offensive Rookie fo the Year leaderboards.
The algorithms indicate that Montgomery's touches tonight will decrease on account of these factors, and a lingering thigh bruise could keep him limited even further. While the best market price indicates a total of 14.5 rush attempts, our internal data suggests the total should be closer to 11.5.
The best market price is with PointsBet.
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