Lions vs Packers Player Prop: Expert Bets on Marvin Jones, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery
Getty Images. Pictured: Marvin Jones Jr.
Jones has failed to step up as the Lions' WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Last week, Kalif Raymond leapfrogged him on the depth chart, and Jones operated as the Lions' clear No. 3 receiver.
Jones saw a season-low 29% routes run rate in Week 3 and has failed to draw a single target over the past two games. In a game that could see Jared Goff under pressure more than usual, I don't expect him to have enough time to go through his progressions to get to Jones.
The easier matchup for the Lions will be over the middle of the field with Packers LB De'Vondre Campbell out. Look for Goff to lean on St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs even more in this game. I'd also expect Josh Reynolds and Raymond to see most of the targets at Lions WRs that don't go to St. Brown.
I'm projecting Jones right at one catch with a median closer to 11.5. I love the under 14.5 since he has a very low floor. As of 2:45 p.m. ET, 14.5 was available at bet365 and BetMGM.
Making this bet at BetMGM? Click here to get the latest promo code.
Jones will be making his return from a hamstring injury that cost him the last two games. There's a chance he could be limited, and my guess it that it'll be in the running game. Green Bay will likely want to get him as much receiving work as possible.
Jones also could struggle to run behind an offensive line that will be without its starting left guard and tackle in Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari. Right tackle Zach Tom is active, though, after being listed as questionable.
The Lions rank fifth in DVOA against the run. The Detroit defense is yet to allow an opposing running back to clear 45 rushing yards this season. That includes Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
I have this closer to 40.5. Jones has a lower floor in this specific market tonight.
I'm projecting this closer to -165. It's offering value at all the sportsbooks that are offering it, and it looks like FanDuel is the only one that is not.
Montgomery is probably going to inherit a lot of work on early downs tonight, but Jahmyr Gibbs should see most of the action on passing downs. Also, Montgomery has only been targeted on 3.3% of routes run this season, which is very low.
I still have him closer to my preseason projection of 12-13%, and that's still showing value on the under.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
