The Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) and Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) face off in NFL Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Chargers are 3-point favorites over the Jaguars on the spread (Chargers -3), with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. Los Angeles is a -160 favorite to win outright while Jacksonville is +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Jaguars predictions for today's Week 11 game.
Chargers vs Jaguars Prediction
- Chargers vs Jaguars pick: Jaguars +3 (-115)
My Chargers vs Jaguars best bet is on Jacksonville to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chargers vs Jaguars Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Chargers vs Jaguars Week 11 Preview
I simply can’t get to the Chargers being 3-point favorites in this game. Based on my projections, the spread for this game should be closer to +1 or +1.5.
The Chargers simply can’t block anyone right now given all the injuries to their offensive line. They have to get rid of the ball within a second to try to do something on offense.
Justin Herbert had an average time to throw of 2.25 seconds against the Steelers — that was only the fifth time this season any quarterback has been forced to release it that fast. Before last week, the highest pressure rate any quarterback had faced was 28%; Herbert was at 44%. That’s insane.
Despite those issues, the Chargers are laying three points on the road against a competent team without a reliable offensive line.
Since those line problems began, here’s what the Chargers have done away from home: beat the Raiders and Titans, lost to the Giants, and barely edged out the Dolphins.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars haven’t played at home in over a month.
The Jags have gone 1-3 over their last four games, but their defeats came against the Rams, Seahawks, and Texans — two of the best teams in the NFL, plus the Texans, who own one of the league’s top defenses.
Chargers vs Jaguars Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Chargers’ run defense has been below-average across the board, ranking near the bottom of the league in explosive runs allowed. That’s the key factor when handicapping Jaguars games — can they run the ball effectively?
Against the Chargers, they should be able to. Every recent opponent the Jags have faced has featured a strong run defense — Los Angeles does not.
Jacksonville is also getting healthier. Tight end Brenton Strange could return, which would be a major boost in the red zone. Brian Thomas was back at practice and Jakobi Meyers had another week to settle into the system.
If Justin Herbert doesn’t have time, he won’t be able to attack the Jaguars’ safeties down the field. You don’t want Andrew Wingard trying to cover downfield, but that weakness won’t matter if the pass rush gets home quickly.
The Jaguars are undervalued today. They'll be able to run the ball, and they’ve been a much better team at home this season — remember, this is the same squad that caught three points at home earlier in the year and beat Kansas City outright.
I am not a believer in this Chargers team right now with the state of their offensive line. Their O-line just crumbles in some games, especially on the road.
Pick: Jaguars +3 (-115)
Spread
The Chargers are favored by too many points in this spot; Jacksonville to cover the spread is my bet.
Moneyline
While I like the Jags to cover, I'm not betting their moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not betting either side of the total in this contest.
