Rams vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Betting Pick
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Rams vs Cardinals Odds, Prediction
The latest Rams vs. Cardinals odds for NFL Week 12 have Los Angeles installed as 2.5-point favorites on the spread with a game total of 45. My NFL pick for this matchup is a prop on Kyren Williams, who's making his return today.
The Cardinals host the Rams in a matchup that’s been incredibly lopsided against the spread since Sean McVay arrived (11-2-1). However, the books seemingly don’t know how to handicap this NFC West battle with each team listed as the favorite at various points throughout the week.
As such, I’m focusing on Williams for my Rams vs. Cardinals prediction.
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Rams vs Cardinals Pick
Williams was one of the league’s few true bell-cows prior to suffering an ankle injury in Week 6 that sidelined him since mid-October. He was also playing lights out.
Pro Football Focus grades him as the third-best runner this season (87.9), with only Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Warren marked higher. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise, then, that Los Angeles’ run game averages 94.2 yards without him compared to 108.2 with him.
The Rams are grateful to have him back, and it’s hard to draw up a tastier matchup for a player coming off injured reserve. Williams’ last game was against this Cardinals defense — he torched them for 158 yards on 20 carries.
Arizona’s defense is a train wreck in general, and its run defense is no exception, ranking 29th in DVOA. The Cards allow the third-most rushing attempts per game (31.3) and seventh-most yards (131.1). They also give up the third-most touchdowns on the ground (15).
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There are obvious concerns that the Rams may limit Williams’ carries in his first game back. McVay noted they may take a “smart approach” on Sunday. However, he also said that if Williams is feeling “good” then he’ll have a “normal workload.”
As a result, I’m focusing on total rushing yards. The consensus market line is 61.5. Williams averages 4.7 yards per carry, so he’ll need around 13 totes to eclipse the threshold if that number stays true. For what it’s worth, 13.5 is the line for his carries.
Finally, this game is too important for the Rams to pull back the throttle if Williams looks like his normal self. They enter with a 14% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times' playoff simulator, which runs tens of thousands of simulations to garner odds. That number bumps up to approximately 25% with a win, but drops to 5% with a loss.
I’d be all over Williams if this wasn’t his first game back. Still, the matchup is too favorable to ignore. Arizona’s run defense is so atrocious that I’m rolling with him.
You may want to consider an anytime touchdown as well. Once again, the Cardinals give up the third-most touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Williams has six rushing touchdowns, which is tied for eighth-most in the league despite appearing in just six games.
Overall, Williams was a pleasure to watch to start the year and getting him back is a major boost for the Rams in what’s close to a must-win game. I like his chances to exceed 61.5 yards, although I wouldn’t take this that much higher.
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