The Miami Dolphins (7-9) and New England Patriots (13-3) will meet in Week 18 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Patriots are 13.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread, with the over/under is 45 total points. New England is a -900 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +650 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs Patriots predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.
Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction, Picks
- Dolphins vs Patriots pick: Dolphins +13.5 (-105)
My Patriots vs. Dolphins best bet is on Miami to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Patriots Odds for NFL Week 18
| Miami Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| New England Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | -900 |
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview
Editor's Note: This preview was written before De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle were reportedly ruled out.
This is a classic Week 18 spot.
One team, the Dolphins, is eliminated and playing loose; the other, the Patriots, technically have something to play for, but motivation and injury factors make the underdog the more valuable side.
Let’s start with the Patriots.
Yes, they still have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the odds are slim — about 15–20% — and they will know a lot about their fate as the day unfolds, especially with the Chargers sitting starters against the Broncos.
With so many injuries on both sides of the ball, New England is incentivized to be cautious. If the game gets away from them, expect them to pull starters early to preserve health for the playoffs.
The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Jets, but that’s a misleading result. The Jets have been in full tank mode and started a backup quarterback, inflating perceptions of New England’s current form.
Statistically, the Patriots are middle of the pack in total DVOA , and their underlying metrics are not as strong as the market thinks they are. The Patriots have also benefited from a relatively easy schedule.
Now, let’s talk Dolphins.
Miami has played hard, even after being eliminated, and looks better with backup quarterback Quinn Ewers than it did with Tua Tagovailoa.
The offense has young, motivated players like Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane and Malik Washington, all of whom can make explosive plays against a Patriots defense that may ease up depending on the flow of the game.
Miami’s DVOA ranks lower (21st), but that underrates them with its recent quarterback switch and the emergence of new contributors.
Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Predictions, Analysis
This is a great situational spot for Miami.
The Patriots may start strong, but if the Broncos are blowing out the Chargers, New England could shift focus toward the postseason by the second half.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and plenty of young players looking to prove themselves.
All the pressure is on New England, and the market is as high on the Patriots as it’s been all year, which makes this a classic time to fade them.
Going by power ratings, the spread for this game should be Patriots -9.5 with both teams at full strength, and that’s before factoring in all of New England's injuries and playoff caution.
I love the Dolphins getting double digits in this spot. Even if the Patriots need the win, they’re likely to play it safe, and the backdoor is wide open for Miami’s playmakers.
Dolphins vs Patriots Best Bet
- Dolphins +13.5 (-105)
Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Trends
Dolphins vs Patriots Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Gillette Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 4 |
| Time: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
