Najee Harris Player Prop Pick for Steelers vs Ravens in NFL Week 18

Najee Harris Player Prop Pick for Steelers vs Ravens in NFL Week 18 article feature image

CINCINNATI, OHIO – NOVEMBER 26: Najee Harris #22 of the Pittsburgh Steelers runs with the ball during the second half of a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on November 26, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Saturday, Jan 6
4:30 p.m. ET
Najee Harris Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

The Steelers have leaned into the ground game as of late. In the two games with QB Mason Rudolph, the offense has noticeably leaned more into a conservative, run-heavy approach with a -17 % pass rate over expectation (FantasyPoints Data) during their span. 

Being in positive game scripts, Najee Harris has also put together two of his most productive performances over the last two weeks under Rudolph. He's rushed for at least 19 carries in back-to-back games and is taking on more of a workhorse role in early-down carries instead of taking a back seat in routes ran to his teammate RB Jaylen Warren in the offense.

According to RotoGrinders weather, it will pour, and wind gusts will reach 25-30 mph. I expect the run game to be featured even more, especially considering the weather impact heading into the game. 

While the matchup may look brutal on paper, running against a Ravens defense ranking eighth in DVOA versus the run and permitting the eighth fewest rush attempts, it's not a spot where the starters are likely to play full minutes. 

Having clinched the AFC title versus the Dolphins last week, the Ravens will be in a meaningless game and expected to rest QB Lamar Jackson. Defensive players like DL Justin Madubuike, LB Roquan Smith, and LB Patrick Queen have played exceptionally well recently. Still, it makes sense to assume a reduced workload this week can pay its dividends when they're needed the most in the playoffs. 

The upcoming game is a must-win for the Steelers, and they will likely focus on leveraging Harris' excellent running skills. We also get added potential given that he should be able to perform better than usual against backup players. All of this should set up his chances of going over his prop today.

Pick: Najee Harris Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

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