Koerner: How I’m Betting Chiefs-Titans, Ravens-Bengals

Every week I use my NFL Power Ratings to project spreads and over/unders for every game and find the best bets. So which are still showing value?

Let's take a look at two picks to make based on my power ratings in the following games:

• Chiefs at Titans: 1 p.m. ET
• Ravens at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Titans +6 vs. Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is set to return from a knee injury that's kept him out of the past two games. The Chiefs managed to go 1-1 without him, and while the market appeared to value him as being worth seven to eight points to the spread, I'm hesitant to give them the full points back quite yet as he isn't likely to be 100% quite yet.

There's a chance he could have limited mobility. And while he isn't necessarily known for his rushing ability, he does use his legs to avoid pressure, extend plays and buy time for his receivers to get open for a huge play. We might not see that Mahomes in Tennessee, but a more conservative version.

One silver lining regarding his knee injury is that the time off has likely allowed him to overcome an ankle injury that had been nagging him previously. Getting that ankle closer to 100% could be the blessing in disguise.

Either way, there's some slight value on the Titans getting six points here if it appears Mahomes will be less than 100%. There's also a non-zero possibility Mahomes has an in-game setback, forcing the Chiefs to bring Matt Moore back in.

If Moore were to start, the line would be closer to Titans -2.5 to -3, so there's some hidden upside taking the Titans here as a result.

Bengals +10.5 vs. Ravens

The Ravens upset the Patriots in a convincing primetime victory while the 0-8 Bengals will be turning to their rookie quarterback Ryan Finley this week. The public is unsurprisingly backing Baltimore, as 68% of spread tickets have come in on the Ravens as of writing (see live public betting data here).

This sets up a classic "trap" game in which the Ravens could overlook the Bengals to focus on their showdown with the 6-3 Texans the following week. If you're the type of bettor who likes to root for the same team as the house, back the Bengals here.