How Do NFL Teams Perform Following In-Season Coaching Changes?

How Do NFL Teams Perform Following In-Season Coaching Changes? article feature image
Credit:

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson

  • The Cleveland Browns fired coach Hue Jackson after they went 3-36-1 straight up and 13-27 against the spread during his tenure.
  • Cleveland is a 7.5-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
  • Using Bet Labs, we analyzed how NFL teams perform after firing their head coach.

The Cleveland Browns have reportedly fired head coach Hue Jackson. In two-plus seasons, the Browns won three games under the now departed coach.

Cleveland was 1-15 in Jackson’s first season and 0-16 last year. The Browns started 2018 with a tie before losing four of their past five games.

During Jackson’s tenure, Cleveland went 3-36-1 straight up (SU) and 13-27 against the spread (ATS) – the least profitable coach during that time.

On Sunday the Browns host the Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, CBS) in their first game without Jackson. Cleveland is a 7.5-point underdog at home.

With Jackson canned, what should bettors expect from the Browns?

To answer that question, we turned to the Bet Labs database. Jackson is the 23rd coach to be fired in-season since 2003.

Here are how the previous 22 teams performed in the game following their coach’s dismissal:

On average, teams have been 5.5-point underdogs in their first game after a coach gets fired.

These teams have gone 9-13 (41%) SU, a marked improvement from how they played before the head coach leaving town. Combined, the 22 teams had a 58-160 (26.6%) record before the coach was relieved of his duties.

The improved win rate results in a profitable record ATS. Teams that fired their coach in-season have gone 12-10 ATS in the following game.

It is a small sample, which makes it difficult to draw strong conclusions, but it’s reasonable to theorize that a team would play better once a coach, such as Jackson, who was compared by a player to Michael Scott, is no longer part of the organization.

via GIPHY

The betting market believes the loss of Jackson is addition by subtraction. Kansas City opened as an 8.5-point favorite but has moved to Chiefs -7.5.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories