Ultimate Week 13 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game

Ultimate Week 13 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr., Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce

  • Our experts preview every Week 13 NFL game from a betting perspective.
  • Find their comprehensive guides below, featuring picks for 49ers-Ravens and more.

Which double-digit favorites should you fade this Sunday? Are the Ravens overvalued against the 49ers? What can we expect from the Browns-Steelers rematch?

Our experts are here to help you find the best betting angles for Week 13. Here are all the games they’ll hit on:

  • Titans at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
  • 49ers at Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
  • Jets at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET
  • Browns at Steelers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Eagles at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Redskins at Panthers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Packers at Giants: 1 p.m. ET
  • Buccaneers at Jaguars: 1 p.m. ET
  • Raiders at Chiefs: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Chargers art Broncos: 4:25 p.m. ET

See how they’re betting all 11, complete with analysis of the biggest matchups and much more. (Including picks for every game.)


Go To: TEN-IND | SF-BAL | NYJ-CIN | CLE-PIT | PHI-MIA | WAS-CAR | GB-NYG | TB-JAX | LAR-ARI | OAK-KC | LAC-DEN


Titans at Colts Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Colts -2
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

All odds as of Friday afternoon.

The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts sit one game behind the Houston Texans in the AFC South heading into Sunday’s showdown. Running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have anchored a surprising Titans offense while the Colts remain efficient behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Our experts analyze every angle of this pivotal game, featuring the biggest mismatch as well as a staff pick.

Titans-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Titans

The Titans placed tight end Delanie Walker (ankle) on injured reserve, but he’s been a non-factor for most of the season. Their main injury to monitor is Henry (hamstring), who has been limited in practice, but so far there are no rumblings of him being in jeopardy of missing this game.

The Colts will be without running back Marlon Mack (hand) once again, and on Thursday, the Colts ruled out wide receiver T.Y.Hilton (calf) after suffering a setback. Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson should take over on 3-WR sets. Justin Bailey

Note: All injury info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Run Defense

The biggest mismatch for any Titans opponent late in the season is always Henry. With defenses often injured and worn down, his physicality is the Titans’ biggest offensive weapon.

In his last 16 games dating back to last season, Henry has totaled 1,710 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He faces an Indianapolis that ranks only 19th in run defense, and just allowed over 4.0 yards per carry to Houston plodder Carlos Hyde and the under-utilized Duke Johnson.

Henry has been incredibly efficient over the past three weeks, finishing as the RB4, RB1 and RB3, respectively. He’s also see an increase in passing game usage with six receptions over that span for a solid 55 yards and a touchdown.

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry.

The Titans’ offensive line has improved throughout the season and is one of the league’s best in short-yardage situations. They rank second in power success, which measures how often a first down in achieved on third/fourth down with two or fewer yards to go (per Football Outsiders). The Titans are going to run the ball regardless of the Colts’ scheme, which has been very difficult to stop recently.

Per PlayerProfiler, Henry is third among running backs in juke rate and fourth overall in evaded tackles.

The Colts will enter this game without their best running back (Mack) and best wide receiver (Hilton), which will likely lead to a lower team total. This puts a greater emphasis on doing something few teams have been able to do late in the season: Stop Derrick Henry. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -2.5
  • Projected Total: 44.5

Expert Pick

Randle: Under 43.5

The Colts’ offense will certainly struggle without their best running back (Mack), best wide receiver (Hilton) and best tight end (Eric Ebron) against a Titans defense that’s allowed fewer than 20 points per game this season

Meanwhile, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has been very effective at limiting opposing quarterbacks throughout this year, limiting production for top signal-callers such as Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes at home (one touchdown) and Houston’s Deshaun Watson (two interceptions).

Tennessee’s offense has remained efficient despite Tannehill’s low pass volume. He will be challenged by an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Colts’ run defense has been strong all season, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards by opposing running backs. Even with Henry’s historic success against Indianapolis (over 200 total yards in his last two games against the Colts), this should project as a low-scoring game with both teams at 6-5 and battling for a playoff spot.

I’m taking the under here in a tough AFC South showdown. The Colts offensive injuries and the uncertainty of increased Tannehill pass volume should suppress scoring and likely keep both teams under 21 points.

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49ers at Ravens Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -5.5
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

It’s no surprise that the public is buying the Baltimore Ravens off a blowout win on Monday Night Football, with 60% of tickets and 70% of money coming in on Lamar Jackson and Co. to cover as 5.5-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers. But are bettors undervaluing Kyle Shanahan’s 10-1 squad?

Our experts analyze every angle of this Week 13 matchup, featuring the mismatch that could decide the game as well as a staff pick.

49ers-Ravens Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Ravens

The Ravens’ biggest injury of note is linebacker Matthew Judon, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury. Judon is one of their best pass-rushers and leads the team in quarterback pressures, sacks, hits and hurries (per Pro Football Focus).

The 49ers, meanwhile, have a lengthy injury report with their usual suspects of late: Matt Breida (ankle), George Kittle (knee/ankle), Dante Pettis (knee), Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are all on it. Basically their whole offense. Pettis got injured in practice and was downgraded on Thursday, so I wouldn’t expect him to play. The others appear on track to play.

Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) still hasn’t resumed practicing. His potential absence would be good news for the Ravens since Ford is one of San Francisco’s best players at getting after the quarterback. Justin Bailey

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Breida, George Kittle

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens Offense vs. 49ers Defense

The biggest mismatch whenever the Ravens play a team for the first time is their unique offense.

Not only do they run a scheme that teams don’t see the rest of the season, they also have the speed and accuracy combo of Lamar Jackson, who has defensive coordinators around the league scrambling on how to stop him and the Ravens’ elite rushing attack while also covering up the receivers and tight ends on the back end.  Their unheralded offensive line play also doesn’t hurt.

Nobody has seemed to come up with a solution as of yet. And that shock value usually leads to the Ravens taking an early lead, which sets them up for how they want to play the rest of the game: Pound the rock and play an aggressive style of defense with heavy blitzing and blanket coverage on the outside with their three elite corners.

If the Ravens make you play from behind and turn you into a one-dimensional team, that plays right into the strength of their defense: Stopping the pass.

However, there are still holes up the middle of this Ravens defense, specifically when it comes to stopping the run. And who better to exploit that than Shanahan, assuming the 49ers can stay in the game early and committed to the run against a Baltimore defense that ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA.

I don’t think either team will have much success throwing the ball against two of the NFL’s best secondaries, especially when you take a look at the forecast for Charm City: Winds and rain all Sunday. Therefore, this will come down to which team can have more sustained success on the ground against the other’s vulnerable rush defense.

You’d have to give a slight edge to Jackson, but don’t be surprised if both teams can grind clock on the ground with longer drives, which lends itself to the under.

Mark andrews-Lamar jackson
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson

The other X-factor could be the tight end position. Jackson loves to throw to his tight ends, but the 49ers rank No. 1 in defending the position (per Football Outsiders). Conversely, the Ravens — who remain a little weak up the middle — struggle to defend tight ends and rank 20th.

That could mean a big day for Kittle, one of the league’s best tight ends in the NFL. It’ll be intriguing to see which types of formations the 49ers use — specifically how often they utilize two tight end or two back sets — to see if the Ravens use one of their three top-tier corners on Kittle. Stuckey

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -6
  • Projected Total: 47.5

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Under 46.5

Given the weather and two excellent secondaries, I think this will be an extremely run-heavy game between two of the NFL’s best teams.

After what the Ravens offense has done of late, the market is pricing this total, which is why I like the under. With the game script I assume for both teams, I expect the clock to be moving swiftly with two teams that don’t play fast.

I like the under down to 45.

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Jets at Bengals Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Jets -3
  • Over/Under: 41.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals are still the only winless team in the NFL and their chances to get a get a victory are dwindling. As of Friday, the betting public is backing the Jets with more than 75% of spread bets picking Gang Green to cover.

Can Andy Dalton prove bettors wrong and lead the Bengals to a long-awaited first win?

Our experts analyze all the angles of this matchup, including a comparison of the current odds to Sean Koerner’s projections and a pick.

Jets-Bengals Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bengals

This is the Bengals’ shortest injury report of the season. A.J. Green (ankle), offensive lineman Alex Redmond (knee) and linebacker Nick Vigil (ankle) all haven’t practiced this week, suggesting they won’t be playing.

As usual, the Jets have a lengthy injury report, and their trend of limited players all suiting up on Sundays hasn’t been broken yet. If that’s the case, the players who are most likely to miss this game are linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) and offensive lineman Chuma Edoga (knee). Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Jets Pass Offense vs. Bengals Pass Defense

The Bengals are 0-11. They’re exploitable all across the roster, but they’re particularly bad against the pass, ranking 31st in pass defense (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).

And in the first half of games — before opposing teams start to let up on them — the Bengals are No. 32 in pass success rate allowed (per Sharp Football Stats).

Pretty much any competent passing attack should be able to exploit the Bengals. And amazingly, the Jets are more than competent.

Second-year quarterback Sam Darnold made a meme of himself in Week 7 against the Patriots when he said he was seeing ghosts, but in the five games since then, the Jets have been one of the league’s best passing teams.

Since Week 8, Darnold has a 67.1% completion rate and a respectable 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. For context, that number would put him in the top 10 for the season, just below Deshaun Watson at 8.3 and above Aaron Rodgers at 8.1.

Over the past five weeks, the Jets are No. 7 in pass success rate and No. 2 in the first half of games.

The Jets have a balanced wide receiver unit with speedster Robby Anderson, slot man Jamison Crowder and possession receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Bengals are without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirtkpatrick (knee, IR).

The Jets have a competent veteran and red-zone contributor in tight end Ryan Griffin and an elite pass-catching back in Le’Veon Bell. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA both tight ends and running backs.

Darnold has had his best game of the year in each of the past two weeks. After his matchup with the Bengals, he might have the hat trick. Darnold has 300-yard, three-touchdown upside. — Matthew Freedman

PRO System Match

The Bengals have struggled on offense recently. Over their past three games, they’ve been held to 13 or fewer points.

As a result, more than 75% of spread tickets are on the Jets as small road favorites as of writing (see live public betting data here). While this may seem like a good time to fade Cincy’s inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 165-115-59 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,616 following this strategy. John Ewing


PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.


Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Jets -2.5
  • Projected Total: 42.5

Expert Pick

Koerner: Bengals +3

Ryan Finley has been benched for Andy Dalton this week. I’m not sure we’ve heard the exact reason for this move yet, but it’s clear that Finley is not quite ready for NFL action.

I would speculate that the Bengals are simply trying to avoid going 0-16. They could then go back to Finley after they win a game and continue to tank for the top draft pick in 2020. This matchup, along with a Week 16 date at home against the Dolphins, are likely their only chances to avoid going 0-16, so I expect them to be more motivated this week as a result.

The Jets were getting more than 80% of the action before the quarterback change. I’ve been harping on them as buy-low candidates for the past few weeks, but it appears the public has finally caught up.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Bengals have a +2.2 edge in Pythagorean differential with the Jets. As soon as Cincinnati announced Dalton would start, I fired a bet on the Bengals at +4.

It’s only dropped to +3, which is very odd considering Dalton is worth more than a half-point over Finley. I have the drop-off closer to 2.5 to 3 points, which is why I have the Bengals as +2.5 now. There’s still plenty of value getting the Bengals at such a key number of +3.

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Browns at Steelers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Browns -1
  • Over/Under: 38.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

It was only two weeks ago that these two teams faced off in a primetime game that will be remembered for the brawl between Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph, not the final score.

And while a lot has changed in the short time since — with Garrett serving an indefinite suspension and Rudolph benched for Devlin Hodges — this is still a heated divisional rivalry.

Our experts preview the matchup from a betting perspective, featuring analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Browns-Steelers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Browns

Odell Beckham Jr. (groin) remains limited in practice, but has yet to miss a game due to this injury. Defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) has returned to limited practice after missing the past few games, which is encouraging — the Browns need him back after they lost Garrett due to suspension.

James Conner (shoulder) returned to limited practice on Thursday, but wil likely still be considered questionable. JuJu Smith-Schuster cleared the concussion protocol, but he’s still missing practice due to a knee injury. Given that he hasn’t returned yet, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him ruled out again. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Browns Pass Catchers vs. Pittsburgh Pass Defense

The Browns are winners of three straight and have started to think about the playoffs. The key to their turnaround has been their passing game efficiency, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Over the past three games, Mayfield has eight total touchdowns and just one interception. And while Beckham is still their WR1, their most productive receiver recently has been Jarvis Landry.

With Landry working the short to intermediate areas of the field, and with Beckham still a deep threat on every play, the Browns have become a difficult passing offense to defend. It was just two weeks that Mayfield tossed two touchdown against the Steelers then ran for a third after Beckham was ruled own at the 1-yard line on a 42-yard reception.

The Browns will also have the services of starting tight end David Njoku, who has returned from a broken wrist in Week 2. Pittsburgh has allowed the 11th-most receptions (55) to tight ends and third most touchdowns (six).

The Steelers are coming off an uninspiring 16-10 win over a still-winless Cincinnati team, in which they allowed the overall WR13 performance to Tyler Boyd. This week represents a huge upgrade in quarterback difficulty, going from rookie Ryan Finley to Mayfield.

Pittsburgh’s defense will likely focus on limiting the production from Nick Chubb, but will also need to limit Cleveland’s revived passing attack. With Beckham, Landry, Njoku and pass-catching running back Kareem Hunt, the Steelers pass defense will face one of their toughest challenges this season. Mike Randle

browns-vs-broncos-betting-odds-predictions-picks-november-3-2019
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Pick’ em
  • Projected Total: 41

Garrett is a huge loss for the Browns defense — you could even argue he’s worth a half to a full point against the spread — so I was a bit shocked to see the Browns initially open as 3-point favorites.

The decision to bench Rudolph in favor of Hodges is more of a lateral move that isn’t impacting my Pittsburgh power rating. The Steelers are likely to have a fairly run-heavy conservative game plan and lean on their defense to keep this game close.

Mike Tomlin usually does well coming up with winning game plans in these spots and has now gone 33-18 (64.7%) ATS as an underdog in his career. As of writing, 68% of the action has come in on the Browns (see live public betting data here), so it’s worth seeing if the market sends this line up to 3 before backing the Steelers. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Steelers +1

I circled this classic Tomlin spot right after the Thursday night melee in Cleveland.

He’s not the greatest X’s and O’s coach, but I consider Tomlin to be one of the best motivators in the league. His teams thrive when he can fire up the locker room and take an us-against-the-world mentality. And what better spot to fire up a locker room than at home against a hated division opponent that recently had their best defensive player attack your quarterback with his helmet?

bengals vs steelers-betting odds-picks-monday night football-2019
David Butler II, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Tomlin

I expect the Steelers to come out with their hair on fire — especially on defense — right from the jump. That could spell disaster for a very undisciplined Browns team playing in a game that should be refereed very tightly given what happened in the last meeting.

Hodges is expected to get the start under center, which I actually prefer. Some rate Rudolph better, but I have them about equal overall, and Rudolph just had lost all of his confidence and simply refused to throw the ball down the field — two things I’m not currently worried about with the former Samford QB.

The Steelers defensive line, which ranks second in adjusted sack rate, should dominate the line of scrimmage against a poor Browns offensive line and get to Mayfield on the regular. Mayfield is completing only a tad more than 45% of his passes under pressure with five touchdowns and five interceptions.

I think the same can be said on the offensive side of the ball as the Browns will sorely miss Garrett against a rock-solid Steelers offensive line that ranks third in adjusted sack rate.

The Browns have covered for me three weeks in a row, but this is a spot to jump off the wagon. I expect a classic mistake-filled Browns performance against a fired-up Steelers team in front of a raucous crowd.

Wait to see if a 3 pops, but I like the Steelers at any dog number.

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Eagles at Dolphins Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Eagles -10
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Miami Dolphins are once again double-digit underdogs.

This team continues to have the lowest expectations, though is only 5-6 against the spread and is attracting 40% of tickets as a 10-point dog against the Philadelphia Eagles. But where’s the true value on this spread?

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, complete with a staff pick.

Eagles-Dolphins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

Every player on the Dolphins’ injury report was able to practice in a limited fashion, so it’s likely most are trending toward playing. The two to monitor could be Allen Hurns (ankle) and Albert Wilson (hip/chest).

The Eagles have been a mess for a while, but Nelson Agholor (knee), Jordan Howard (shoulder) and Alshon Jeffery (ankle) are all at least getting in limited practices. Agholor and Jeffery are the most likely to return as Howard has yet to be cleared for contact.

Additionally, Zach Ertz has missed back-to-back practices with a hamstring injury. He reportedly played through this issue last week, so it’s possible he does it again. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Eagles Running Backs vs. Dolphins Linebackers

It’s an utter pleasure each week to write about how bad the Dolphins linebackers are. Almost regardless of opponent, they’re outmatched.

The Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense and No. 32 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). Lots of players contribute to the vastness of the Dolphins’ back-centric defensive ineptitude, but linebackers Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen seem especially to blame, as evidenced by their Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Jerome Baker: 44.2 overall grade, 36.1 run defense, 56.9 coverage
  • Sam Eguavoen: 42.4 overall grade, 40.5 run defense, 53.3 coverage

Baker and Eguavoen are preeminently exploitable.

A grinding between-the-tackles bruiser, Howard is comparable in skill set and style to several of the backs who have gone off against the Dolphins this season: Mark Ingram (14-107-2), Sony Michel (21-83-1), Adrian Peterson (23-118-0), James Conner (23-145-1) and Nick Chubb (21-106-1).

bears-vs-eagles-odds-picks-week-9-2019
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Miles Sanders

No. 2 back Miles Sanders has scored just two touchdowns this season, but he’s currently on pace for 1,125.8 scrimmage yards and has flashed as a receiver with his 75% catch rate and 9.4 yards per target. He looks like he’s developing into a future Pro Bowler.

And No. 3 back Jay Ajayi — although he was just recently re-signed off the street — is a capable runner with knowledge of the offense. He’s not far removed from back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns, and he’s in a #RevengeGame spot. Ajayi tends to run like there’s no tomorrow anyway, but in this case, he’s likely to play with even more ferocity.

Against Baker and Eguavoen, the Eagles backs could combine for 200 yards and multiple touchdowns. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Eagles -10.5
  • Projected Total: 45.5

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Eagles 1H -4/Game -10

Time to go back to the well with a Dolphins fade.

Just like the past two weeks against the Bills and Browns, I’m fading Miami by taking Philly to cover the first half (anything under 5 is fine) and full game (anything 10 or better).

This Dolphins roster is historically bad and much worse than the team we saw earlier in the season.

Let’s start on offense.

You have to give credit to Ryan Fitzpatrick for some of the numbers he’s putting up considering the lack of talent he has around him. He’s working with a horrific offensive line and a historically-bad running game that’s averaging a league-worst 3.1 yards per rush — and that includes time with Mark Walton and Kenyan Drake, who are both no longer with the team.

dolphins-vs-bills-odds-picks-predictions-week 7-2019
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kalen Ballage

The receiving corps has also been depleted with injuries as it’s pretty much now just DeVante Parker on the outside.

I don’t expect the Dolphins to do much on offense against an Eagles defense that has some of the best metrics over the best month, holding four straight opponents to fewer than 17 points for the first time in 10 years. The secondary has improved significantly since the return of Jalen Mills, and the defensive line should have its way with that poor offensive line.

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense has been severely limited, primarily due to a lack of deep threat with the absence of DeSean Jackson. However, they’ve also dealt with a number of impactful injuries on the outside and along the offensive line. But it looks like the offensive line should be at full strength and they’ll be getting back a number of weapons on the outside (the latest reports on Ertz, Agholor and Jefferey look promising).

Ultimately, this is a very poor Dolphins defense that shouldn’t get much push at the line of scrimmage and have lost a ton in the secondary. This is a get-right game for the Eagles who should take out some of their recent frustrations against a reeling Miami team. I’m laying the points.

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Redskins at Panthers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Panthers -10
  • Over/Under: 39.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers welcome the hapless Redskins one week after losing a thriller in New Orleans. Washington, meanwhile, won just its second game of the season by knocking off the decimated Lions.

Our experts think that McCaffrey is due to dominate a lagging Skins defense while Dwayne Haskins and the weak Washington offense is unlikely to be any better on the road. Find their full analysis and picks below.

Redskins-Panthers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Redskins

The Panthers will be without run-stuffer Dontari Poe (quad) after placing him on injured reserve. Gerald McCoy (knee/quad) also hasn’t practiced. McCoy is one of the Panthers’ best run defenders and pass-rushers. He’s top-two on the team in pressures, hits, hurries and sacks, per Pro Football Focus

The Redskins could be shorthanded at receiver with Paul Richardson (hamstring) missing practice. Also of note is Adrian Peterson (toe), who was downgraded on Thursday, though Washington has messed around with his practice schedule every week so I’d still expect him to play. Defensive end Ryan Kerrigan will miss his first career game with a concussion, breaking a streak of 139 consecutive games played. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington’s Run Defense

Is there ever a time McCaffrey isn’t a Panthers opponent’s biggest mismatch? The overall RB1 in fantasy football has dominated every opponent regardless of location or defensive efficiency. This week, he returns home to face a poor Washington run defense.

The Redskins rank 21st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, and just allowed 98 rushing yards (5.1 yards per carry) to Detroit’s former practice squad back Bo Scarbrough. In Washington’s last road game at Buffalo, running back Devin Singletary piled up 140 total yards and a touchdown.

The most difficult part of defending McCaffrey is in the passing game. Washington has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing running backs, and travel to Carolina where McCaffrey has ethered the opposition.


McCaffrey presents a mismatch every week, but he’s a terrible matchup for the 2-9 Redskins. Washington’s run defense will need to play their best game of the season against the NFL’s best overall running back. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Panthers -10.5
  • Projected Total: 40.5

Expert Pick

Randle: Under 43

The Panthers offense woke up last week in their 34-31 loss at New Orleans. Even against New Orleans’ seventh-best run defense, McCaffrey still found a way to total 133 yards and two touchdowns. Washington’s lackluster defense (21st in run and pass defense DVOA) is unlikely to limit the Panthers at home.

Haskins has experienced the typical rookie growing pains with just two touchdown passes and six interceptions. He will struggle against Carolina’s eighth-best pass defense.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dwayne Haskins.

The Redskins best chance to control the ball is through their running game, but Peterson has been limited this week in practice. Regardless, their offense has underwhelmed all season. It hasn’t eclipsed 20 points since Week 2 against Dallas.

The Panthers passing game features a host of weapons, led by a second-year breakout from wide receiver D.J. Moore, who has averaged 110.5 receiving yards in each of the past four contests. Tight end Greg Olsen should also find success against Washington, who allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

The Panthers will score against Washington, leaving underdog bettors to trust Washington’s anemic offense. I’ll bank on a couple turnovers from Haskins and a cover by the home favorite.

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Packers at Giants Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Packers -6.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Packers are 5-3 as favorites this season and are facing a Giants team that hasn’t covered at home since September. The public loves the Packers on the road as more than 85% of betting tickets are on Green Bay. Should you back the Pack on the road?

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, featuring analysis of the biggest mismatch and staff picks.

Packers-Giants Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

It’s been the same story with Davante Adams as the Packers continue to limit him with his toe injury. He should be just fine heading into Week 13. Adams has seen 33 targets over his last three games since his return from injury. Perhaps the biggest injury to watch is on the offensive line with Bryan Bulaga (knee). He left last week’s game but managed a limited practice on Thursday.

The Giants will likely be without Golden Tate (concussion), safety Jabrill Peppers (back), Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion). None of them have practiced this week. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Packers Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense

Since Week 8, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has averaged 166 yards and 0.67 touchdowns passing per game.

It’s been a half decade since his 2014 MVP season, when he led the league with 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt. In the following years, he has fallen well short of that benchmark.

2015: 7.1 (t-18th)
2016: 8.1 (fourth)
2017: 7.2 (15th)
2018: 8.1 (ninth)
2019: 8.1 (ninth)

Since last season, Rodgers has just three 300-yard, three-touchdown games. That number ties him with Mitchell Trubisky and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and 11 other quarterbacks have more such performances.

Rodgers is no longer an elite quarterback.

But he’s still good enough to look elite against a pathetic pass defense, and that’s what the Giants have.

The Giants are No. 29 in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and that number probably undersells just how exploitable they are right now.

Janoris Jenkins
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Janoris Jenkins

Week 3 was the last time that No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins was used in shadow coverage. Since Week 4, he’s played almost exclusively at left corner. He’s no longer a shutdown defender.

Opposite Jenkins, the Giants are a mess. Rookie DeAndre Baker has the lowest PFF coverage grade of any starting corner. And now the team is starting to mix in injury-impacted 2018 third-round supplemental draft pick Sam Beal, who has 19 NFL coverage snaps to his name. Both guys are incredibly exploitable.

In the slot, the Giants started undrafted second-year corner Grant Haley for most of the season, but in Week 10, his 86.5% catch rate allowed was finally deemed unpalatable, and he was benched for sixth-round rookie third-string defensive back Corey Ballentine. As bad as Haley is, Ballentine is almost certainly worst. Last week, he gave up 188 yards and a touchdown on 12 receptions and 14 targets.

Against such defenders, Rodgers should be able to connect easily with wide receivers Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Kumerow.

On top of that, the Giants are No. 26 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric), and Rodgers has two good pass-catching backs in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

With his matchup, Rodgers has 300-yard, three-touchdown potential. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -5.5
  • Projected Total: 49

Expert Pick

Koerner: Giants +6.5

The Packers are 6.5- to 7-point road favorites, getting more than 80% of the action (see live public betting data here) and have a -3.4 Pythagorean rating differential with the Giants.

But even with the significant action on the Packers, the line hasn’t budged. It’s very likely there’s been some significant sharp action that’s preventing books to move the line up to a key number like 7.

If Engram is able to return, it’ll be the first time in what seems like years that the Giants will have all of their key skill players active on a given week.

It’s also a spot where we could see Saquon Barkley snap his recent slump. The Packers defense has been vulnerable against the run, coughing up 5.1 yards per carry since Week 7. And while they’re certainly the better team, the Giants should be able to keep it close enough that the clear value lies with +6.5.

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Buccaneers at Jaguars Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Buccaneers -1.5
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Jaguars have struggled since the return of starting quarterback Nick Foles, but they welcome a weak pass defense in Tampa Bay to Jacksonville on Sunday.

The Buccaneers offense has surged lately thanks to big seasons from wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but is there any value on this over? Our experts preview this matchup and make their picks.

Buccaneers-Jaguars Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

The Jags aren’t in bad shape heading into this game, but the most notable injury is to offensive lineman Brandon Linder (shoulder). Linder grades out as one of the best pass blockers on the team. He hasn’t been credited with an allowed a sack to any Jaguars quarterback, per Pro Football Focus.

Defensive lineman Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) hasn’t practiced this week, and Tampa could potentially be down their best run defender in edge defender Anthony Nelson (hamstring). His potential absence would be good news for Leonard Fournette. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Jaguars Pass Offense vs. Buccaneers Pass Defense

I haven’t been too impressed with the Jags since Foles returned in Week 11. They’ve scored just 16.5 points per game, and Foles has passed for only 284 yards and one touchdown per start.

But Foles has a great matchup against the Bucs, who have allowed a league-high 494.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com). Whether they are targeted downfield or underneath, the Bucs allow the ball to move a lot via the passing attack.

In fact, the Bucs have the league’s most extreme funnel defense, ranking No. 1 against the run but No. 25 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). Although the Jags tend to lean on their running game, against the Bucs, they will be motivated to throw.

And when they pass, there’s every reason to expect succeed when targeting the cornerbacks. The Bucs cut No. 1 corner Vernon Hargreaves III in Week 11, and slot corner M.J. Stewart (knee) hasn’t played since Week 10 and is yet to return to practice. He seems unlikely to suit up this weekend.

As a result, second-year cornerback Carlton Davis is now the unit’s No. 1 player, and rookies Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean are respectively playing in the slot and perimeter. Collectively, these three corners comprise the league’s most inexperienced pass defense trio.

All of them are vulnerable. Just last week, Carlton allowed 117 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. In his two games as the team’s primary slot corner, Murphy-Bunting has allowed an 85.7% completion rate. And Dean in his three games of sustained action has yielded 187 yards and three touchdowns.

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DJ Chark.

While the Jags aren’t a pass-heavy team, they have the wide receivers to exploit this matchup. Second-year emerging star D.J. Chark is a top-five producer at the position with his combination of 834 yards and eight touchdowns. As noted in my Week 13 WR/CB piece, I expect Chark to line up most against Davis. In his final year at LSU, Chark faced off against Davis and burned the Auburn secondary for 150 yards on five receptions.

Opposite of Chark, wide receiver Chris Conley is likely to run most of his routes against Dean. Over the past six weeks, Conley has 65 yards on 7.8 targets per game. In his two games with a touchdown this year, he’s averaged 100 yards receiving. A big-play specialist, Conley is going against a mistake-prone rookie backup.

And in the slot, the savvy Dede Westbrook should be able to run circles around Murphy-Bunting. A perimeter corner in college, Murphy-Bunting has been exposed as an NFL slot defender. Although he’s explosive, it’s likely that Murphy-Bunting lacks the twitchy agility and more importantly the technique needed to cover a receiver in the middle of the field. Westbrook has deferred to Chark this year, but last year Westbrook led the Jags in receiving, and he still has 100-yard potential in any given game.

Against these corners, Foles and the Jags could pile up 300 yards and three touchdowns passing. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Jaguars -2
  • Projected Total: 49.5

Expert Pick

John Ewing: Under 47.5

This total opened 49. More than 60% of tickets are on the over. Tampa is third in the NFL in scoring (28.4 points per game) and the over has gone 9-2 in their games this season.

We know why the public is cheering for points but sharp bettors like the under. A higher percentage of dollars than tickets are on the under, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total down to 47.5.

One reason the pros are expecting a low-scoring game is the weather. The forecast is calling for 17 mph winds during the game. Wind can impact the passing and kicking games, which creates a low scoring environment.

Historically, it has been profitable to bet the under in windy games. A $100 bettor following this strategy has returned a profit of $8,058 since 2003.

Windy conditions, sharp action, all signs point to value on the under in Sunday’s matchup.

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Rams at Cardinals Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Rams -3
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The public is fading the Los Angeles Rams as 3-point road favorites with 60% of tickets backing the Arizona Cardinals to cover.

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup from a betting perspective below, featuring mismatches and more

Rams-Cardinals Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

Coming off the bye week the Cardinals are in good shape. Chase Edmonds (hamstring) and defensive lineman Jonathan Bullard (foot) are the only guys on the report, but Edmonds was upgraded to full practice on Thursday.

The Rams are also decently healthy, but they could be down Gerald Everett (knee) as he has yet to practice this week. Tyler Higbee would be inline for an increased role if Everett is ruled out. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Rams Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

The Rams have incredibly underwhelmed in 2019, dropping from 32.9 points per game last year to 22.6 this year. Much of the fault lies with their passing offense, which has been sabotaged by rapidly regressing quarterback Jared Goff, who has averaged just one touchdown per game this year.

But he’s in a get-right spot against the Cardinals, who are No. 32 in Pro Football Focus coverage grade. For at least this week, the Rams might rediscover their former glory.

The matchup for the Rams wide receivers is especially enticing.

fantasy-football-half-ppr-rankings-flex-week-2-2019
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp

Last year, No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson shadowed Brandin Cooks on 80.8% of his routes and held him to just 18 yards on one target. But Peterson is a different guy this year.

Since returning from suspension, he has allowed a 73.3% catch rate, 315 yards and two touchdowns in five games. I expect that Peterson will shadow Cooks once again this week, but Cooks has the speed to get by Peterson for some big plays.

Opposite Cooks on the perimeter, Robert Woods is slated to face rookie cornerback Byron Murphy, who could develop into a shutdown defender but right now is incredibly raw. Murphy is the No. 103 PFF corner out of 121 qualified players, and he’s allowed an NFL-high seven receiving touchdowns.

Since the Week 9 bye, Woods has averaged 96 yards on 10 targets and 6.5 receptions per game. Against Murphy, Woods has 100-yard, multi-touchdown potential.

And slot receiver Cooper Kupp might have the best matchup of them all. The Cardinals have been rotating cornerbacks Tramaine Brock and Kevin Peterson in the slot, and both of them are exploitable. Brock has allowed 9.8 yards per target this year, and Peterson is a career special-teamer with a 73.7% catch rate allowed with the Cardinals.

The Rams also have a pass-game edge with running back Todd Gurley and tight end Tyler Higbee. The Cardinals are No. 31 in pass defense against backs and No. 32 against tight ends (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). When targeted, Gurley and Higbee should be able to produce.

Goff has disappointed this year, and he tends not to do his best on the road, but he has 300-yard, multi-touchdown potential against the flaccid Cardinals pass defense. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Rams -2.5
  • Projected Total: 49

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 825-732-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 183-112-3 (62%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,193 following this strategy.

A majority of tickets are on this over, but history suggests the under is a smart play. John Ewing


Expert Picks


Our staff doesn’t see value on this game right now, but that could change as lines move, so download our app to follow specific experts and action around this game.


Raiders at Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chiefs -10
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Oakland Raiders were in striking distance of the AFC West lead before getting blown out by the New York Jets last week. Now Jon Gruden’s squad is a 10-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs. But should you buy low on Oakland?

Our experts analyze every angle of this divisional matchup, featuring analysis of the biggest mismatch and staff picks.

Raiders-Chiefs Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

I would guess that Hunter Renfrow won’t play since he suffered a broken rib and punctured lung last week, but every other player on the Raiders’ injury report appears on track to suit up.

Tyreek Hill injured his hamstring in the Chiefs’ last game, but he’s practicing in full coming off the bye. Their other two injuries of note are Damien Williams (ribs) and Sammy Watkins (illness). Williams hasn’t practiced all week, which isn’t a good sign. Watkins was downgraded on Thursday with an illness, but we should have a better idea about his status on Friday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Josh Jacobs vs. Chiefs Run Defense

The biggest mismatch on paper is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against a Raiders defense that simply can’t defend the pass. Not only do the Raiders struggle to get pressure, they have a secondary that struggles to cover in space. That combination spells disaster in today’s NFL and is the reason they rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.

However, the weather is supposed to be nasty in Kansas City with potential 25 mph sustained winds, which could limit the Chiefs’ advantage through the air.

If that’s the case, the biggest mismatch to keep an eye on is the Raiders rushing attack against the abysmal Chiefs run defense. In my eyes, Jacobs (who should eclipse 1,000 yards  this Sunday) is a top-five pure running back in the NFL right now. He’ll be running behind a very physical and solid offensive line against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run DVOA and allows 5.1 yards per carry — they’re one of only two teams allowing more than five yards per rush.

The mismatch in the trenches is also significant. The Raiders’ offensive line ranks fifth in both line yards and stuff rate while the Chiefs’ defensive line ranks 30th and 32nd, respectively.

Oakland should have no issues converting on any short yardage situations.

If Jacobs can consistently churn out yards on the ground, that will sustain long drives for the snail-ish Raiders and keep Mahomes off of the field. It will also set up playaction and the short passing attack for Derek Carr. If that’s the case, that should favor the Raiders and the under (more on that later). Stuckey

fantasy-football-half-ppr-rankings-rb-week-12-2019
Steven Flynn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Jacobs

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -11
  • Projected Total: 53

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 825-732-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 183-112-3 (62%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,193 following this strategy.

After opening at 54.5, this over/under has decreased to 50.5, indicating sharp bettors are on the under. John Ewing


Expert Pick

Stuckey: Raiders +10; Under 51

I played these for a half-unit each as there’s some correlation: If the Raiders are able to move the ball on the ground, they can burn the clock and stay in this while keeping the Chiefs offense off of the field.

Plus, the projected heavy winds will have much more of an impact on the Chiefs’ deep passing game than it will on the Raiders’ run-heavy offense and short playaction passes that Carr fancies. Keep in mind that the Raiders are also a snail, ranking 29th in seconds per play. So when they’re on the field sustaining drives, the clock is bleeding.

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Chargers at Broncos Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chargers -3
  • Over/Under: 38.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the biggest disappointments while the Denver Broncos, are enduring a nightmare season and are coming off a blowout loss to the Bills.

Our experts preview this AFC West matchup from a betting perspective, complete with an analysis of the biggest mismatch and more.

Chargers-Broncos Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chargers

The Chargers are healthy coming off the bye with everyone either practicing in full or a limited basis so far this week. Offensive linemen Russell Okung (groin) and Sam Tevi (knee) are probably the main injuries to watch in the interior since they both didn’t play in Week 11.

The Broncos have key injuries on the defensive side in linebackers Von Miller (knee) and Alexander Johnson (knee). Both haven’t practiced, which wouldn’t be ideal since Johnson grades out as Denver’s best defender and Miller checks in as No. 5, per PFF. Miller leads the team in quarterback pressures, sacks, hits and hurries by a substantial amount. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Phillip Lindsay vs. Chargers Run Defense

The Chargers’ run defense has been among the NFL’s worst all season. They currently ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, and since Week 3 have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in every game except Green Bay. Los Angeles allowed rushing scores to both Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy of Kansas City last week.

Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phillip Lindsay.

When these two teams met in Week 5, Lindsay dominated the Chargers on the ground at a clip of 7.6 yards per carry. He totaled 147 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s 20-13 road upset.

Expect a heavy dose of Lindsay because of the shaky quarterback situation in Denver. Whether Brandon Allen or rookie Drew Lock gets the call for the Broncos, opposing signal-callers have not fared well against the Chargers. Only Deshaun Watson (Week 3) has produced a top-12 fantasy performance against Los Angeles, with safety Derwin James scheduled to see his first action since being placed on injured reserve to start the season.

Lindsay’s volume has increased after re-assuming the lead running back role two weeks again and has logged over a 63% snap share in both games.

Lindsay represents a tough mismatch for a Chargers defense traveling to Mile High Stadium. Los Angeles simply cannot afford a repeat performance from Week 5 if they hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chargers -2.5
  • Projected Total: 39.5

PRO System Match

The Broncos have lost four of their past five games including a 20-3 drubbing to the Bills in Week 12. Brandon Allen has started the last three games completing less than 50% of his passes and earning a quarterback rating of 68.3. The public has had enough of Denver.

The Broncos are 3-point underdogs at home and fewer than 20% of spread tickets are on Denver (see live public betting data here). It’s easy to understand why casual bettors would fade the Broncos but now is a bad time to jump off the bandwagon.

Historically, it has been profitable to bet teams getting little public support after a bad offensive game. Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 150-95-4 (61.2%) against the spread since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,606 following this strategy.

A reverse line movement bet signal has been triggered on the Broncos, an indication that sharps are backing Denver. John Ewing


Expert Pick

Our staff doesn’t see value on this game right now, but that could change as lines move, so download our app to follow specific experts and action around this game.