Tickets to the Super Bowl will be punched on Sunday in Denver and Seattle. We have two intriguing matchups in the NFL Conference Championships with Patriots vs Broncos in the AFC Championship Game and Rams vs Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.
For my NFL predictions on Sunday, I'm targeting the spread in Patriots-Broncos and a Sam Darnold prop in Rams-Seahawks.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks for the Conference Championships. Let's get this shmoney!
NFL Conference Championship Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Broncos
I need to break down the spread for this game.
If the Broncos still had Bo Nix at quarterback, especially given the narratives with the Patriots and their easy schedule, this line would have been around Broncos -1.5 or -2.5, most likely just inside of -3. At the time of writing, the line has shifted all the way to Broncos +5.5 with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback.
Nix is not worth a seven-point swing. I'm not saying he's uninimportant — the Broncos will miss him in this specific matchup — but on the surface, he’s not worth that type of swing on the spread.
Nix averaged 6.4 yards per attempt this season. To me, he wasn't really that great — though I’ll admit he progressed as the season went along. He made strides against zone coverage, and he made some impressive throws against man coverage — plus he added positive value as a runner. But all things considered he was an average quarterback.
Looking at Stidham, he's been close to a league average starter in his starts over a small sample size. He's shown to be a competent quarterback, and that is going to be important because you can't run on the Patriots.
That's where the Broncos will miss Nix, and that's why I like the +5.5 spread more than the moneyline. I can see the Patriots escaping, yet again, with a close win.
But at +5.5 this line is egregious — Stidham is in no way seven points worse than Nix. The drop-off from an elite quarterback to a backup outside the top five is at least a touchdown, but that's not the case here. Nix is average, and he can be really bad at times, sometimes bottom five.
On the other side, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been sloppy with the football. If we look at what he’s done over two playoff games, he's fumbled six times and taken 10 sacks, with a 20.5% pressure-to-sack ratio.
When you go back and look at the numbers for pressure and yards before contact, the Patriots have been worse with Will Campbell and Jared Wilson compared to the games they missed near the end of the regular season.
This Broncos team has record-setting pressure and they don't rely on turnovers. They may very well get them in this game, however. Maye is fearless and he can make pinpoint throws downfield, but he can't continue to take this many sacks.
On the other hand, the Patriots are going up against a backup quarterback, so they might come out a little bit more conservative, more close to the vest.
That's another thing that could work in the Broncos' favor. One thing we learned about head coach Sean Payton is that he’s not going to run the ball for any reason.
Last year, with Nix as a rookie quarterback, I kept waiting for them to regress to a normal pass rate all year, and they were just above expectation regardless of game script. It was the same thing this year.
Now they don't have that option, but that's good. In the two playoff games so far, the Patriots held running backs to 31 carries for 61 yards. You're not running on the Patriots, so Payton not being afraid to throw the football helps him.
Payton knows how to scheme backup quarterbacks. He was 17-5 with backup QBs during his time with the Saints. He’s also an elite underdog. Including the postseason, he's 61-42-2 against the spread (ATS), covering 59.2% of the time by 2.5 points per game.
I still think the Patriots are being slept on. Their run defense — now fully healthy — has been a revelation, reminiscent of Mike Vrabel's defense with the Titans
But this line is crazy, especially with how careless Maye has been with the ball. With Peyton's track record, the fact that he's not going to lean into the run too hard just because he has a backup QB, it’s all going to ultimately work in the Broncos' favor.
Lastly, Denver isn’t an easy place to play in January. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS all-time as a home underdog in January.
Pick: Broncos +4.5
Rams vs Seahawks
Sam Darnold has gone over this number just four times during the regular season. Now he's dealing with an oblique injury, increasing the chances of a possible in-game departure if he aggravates the injury.
I don't think the Seahawks are going to want Darnold to run at all. They’re probably going to encourage him not to scramble. He might just not scramble anyway because of the oblique, and it would probably take a scramble to get over this mark.
The Seahawks probably are not going to call any designed runs for Darnold. They like to use tight end AJ Barner in short yardage. Kenneth Walker is also in line to get the bulk of the carries with Zach Charbonnet out for the season.
I don't think there are many avenues for Darnold to get this unless there's just a wide open lane — and even then, you don't always need six yards for the first before you slide down.
Pick: Sam Darnold Longest Rush Under 6.5
