Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 10.
NFL Interception Props for Week 10
- Josh Allen to Throw an Interception (+190, FanDuel)
- Baker Mayfield to Throw an Interception (+100, DraftKings)
Josh Allen to Throw an Interception (+190)
I know Bills QB Josh Allen is the favorite to win NFL MVP, but I think he could be in line to throw an interception in Week 10 vs the Dolphins.
Allen has four interceptions this season and only four turnover-worthy plays, but this is still a QB who has averaged 15+ TWPs in each of his eight seasons in the NFL.
It was only his MVP season last year when he got that down below 20. This means I think some regression and positive luck is coming for an interception bet.
The Dolphins are a bit of a mess defensively, but they blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and have had recent games where they’ve generated a 30% pressure rate per dropback — which would put them near the top of the league.
Allen has been clean this year, but last season when he saw pressure, 11 of those 15 TWPs came, but it only amounted to four interceptions, which isn’t sustainable.
Finally, this bet is mainly about price.
Allen’s INT odds this week are the highest for any NFL quarterback in any game this season, and there’s something unsettling about an INT price being higher than an Anytime TD prop. At +190, in a divisional game on the road, this is a great price as I had expected odds closer to a coin flip at +110.
Baker Mayfield to Throw an Interception (+100)
Through eight games, I have no idea how Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield only has two interceptions. It’s a bit of an anomaly for him because he’s historically been a known commodity in the interception market — he had 16 last season despite having a career year.
Facing the Patriots on Sunday, he may still have success pushing the football downfield, but this is the game where I think he commits a turnover.
Last season, Mayfield had 16 interceptions on 22 turnover-worthy plays, which is about in line for luck factor and output. This season, he has only two interceptions on 13 turnover-worthy plays, which isn’t sustainable.
He’s also top-five in TWPs against any type of defensive front the Bucs have faced this season. Pressure, no pressure, blitz, no blitz. The interception luck is going to catch up with him.
One thing that stood out about Mayfield’s TWPs from last year and this year is he tends to throw more interceptions when he isn’t blitzed.
Well, the Patriots blitz at a bottom-10 rate and they also rank ninth in interceptions this season with seven. Another thing my good friend Nick Giffen likes to say about Mayfield is, “When it comes to Baker, sometimes you don’t need the pressure or turnover-worthy plays for him to make a dumb throw.”
