Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday Night Football’s Big Betting Model Edge

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday Night Football’s Big Betting Model Edge article feature image
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Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images. Pictured: New England Patriots defensive back J.C. Jackson (27) celebrates with teammates

  • The Buffalo Bills have been a favorite team for bettors all year, going 9-5 ATS and defying expectations thanks to big improvements from QB Josh Allen and an impressive display of offensive aggression.
  • But are these market-darlings overvalued in this spot against the Patriots? Our PRO Projections think so.

NFL Odds: Bills vs. Patriots

Bills Odds -7
Patriots Odds +7
Over/Under 46
PRO Projections Bills -4.3 | O/U: 45.5
Time/Channel  8:15 p.m. ET/ESPN
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NFL Week 16 concludes with the Buffalo Bills taking on the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football.

The Bills, who have already clinched the AFC East, can match the Pittsburgh’s Steelers’ 12-3 record with a win tonight, which is significant as both teams are vying for the conference’s No. 2 playoff seed.

Should bettors buy a motivated Buffalo team? Or can the Patriots keep this within a touchdown?

Our NFL PRO Projections have a clear answer.

NFL Picks: Bills vs. Patriots

We project this line to be Buffalo -4.3, indicating there is value with the home underdog Patriots.

In fact, the difference between the consensus line of New England +7 (click here for the latest Monday Night Football odds) and our projection of +4.3 translates to a B-graded 5.7% edge.

The Patriots have been home underdogs just five times since 2003, going 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in those matchups.

In addition, Bill Belichick has been a dog of least 7 points just one time since 2003, which actually occurred last month against the Ravens — a game New England covered in a 23-17 loss.

PRO Projections Pick: Patriots +7

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