Falcons vs. Jaguars Odds, Predictions, Picks: How We’re Betting This NFL Week 12 Over/Under
Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.
- The Falcons have scored three total points over their last two games while the Jaguars have averaged 13.2 over their last five.
- Our analyst examines the latest Falcons vs. Jaguars odds before making his prediction for the over/under.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Following an embarrassing shutout loss last week at the hands of the New England Patriots, the Atlanta Falcons look to get things back on track this week when they head to TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.
Without star receiver Calvin Ridley, the Falcons (4-6) could not get anything going offensively last time out against the Patriots, failing to score any points in front of the home crowd. The Jaguars (2-8), meanwhile, are coming off a 30-10 blowout loss of their own last week to the San Francisco 49ers.
In a game that features two offenses that have struggled mightily to score points this season, should we be looking toward the total in this Week 12 matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Falcons vs. Jaguars Injury Report
- DL Jonathan Bullard (ankle): Out
- DB Kendall Sheffield (hamstring): Out
- WR Cordarrelle Paterson (ankle): Questionable
- LB Deion Jones (shoulder): Questionable
- CB Shaquill Griffin (concussion): Out
Falcons vs. Jaguars Matchup
|Falcons Offense||DVOA Rank||Jaguars Defense|
|Falcons Defense||DVOA Rank||Jaguars Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Falcons Offense Must Recover From Poor Performances
The absence of Ridley has been a substantial blow to this Falcons offense, to say the least. Since Ridley left the team earlier this season to focus on his mental health, the offense has been anemic, averaging just 10.8 points per game, including just three total points over its last two outings. While both of Atlanta’s opponents, the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots, each have top-five defenses in total DVOA, per Football Outsiders — the Falcons’ inability to gain even a bit of momentum is extremely worrisome.
The matchup against this 29th-ranked Jaguars defense is strong on paper, but this is the same group that allowed just six points to the high-powered Buffalo Bills at home three weeks ago. While they have reverted a bit since then, there’s nothing to suggest they can’t put together a similar performance here against this struggling Falcons unit. The loss of cornerback Shaquill Griffin will hurt, but the lack of wide receiver depth for the Falcons should negate any potential downgrade on the outside.
Given the above, expect tight end Kyle Pitts to once again be the focal point of this offense. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, he should have every opportunity to thrive here. He’ll enjoy a 42% matchup advantage against his primary defender, the second highest on the slate at the tight end position.
Jaguars Will Likely Turn to the Run
The Jaguars offense under first-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence hasn’t exactly been booming, either. While the Jaguars were able to squeak out that 9-6 victory against the Bills, points have been hard to come by for this unit. Over its last five games, this group is averaging just 13.2 points per game, among the worst in the league over that span.
While the matchup against this 30th-ranked Falcons defense is a good one, this group hasn’t been able to score in bunches against any of its opponents this year. In fact, its 23-20 victory against the Dolphins back in October also registers as its season high for points scored as well. Even against this struggling Falcons group, it’s hard to see Jacksonville breaking out here either.
If the Jaguars are going to have success in this one, it will likely be via the run. While Lawrence has struggled to find consistency via the pass, the rushing game has been more of a bright spot thus far. Second-year back James Robinson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry thus far and should have the opportunity to carry the load again against this 24th-ranked Falcons rush defense.
Falcons vs. Jaguars Prediction
Points are hard to come by in the NFL, particularly when your offense is struggling as much as the ones featured in this game are. The loss of Ridley has been a death blow to this Falcons offense, while the Jaguars are struggling to find their identity with a rookie quarterback under center.
At a total of 45.5, there is value on the under in this one. The Falcons are averaging 10.8 points per game since Ridley left the team, while the Jaguars are averaging just 13.2 points per game over their last five. In fact, with a season high of just 23 points back in October, there hasn’t been a defense that Jacksonville has been able to exploit all season.
The biggest danger to the under here will be turnovers. Both teams are at the bottom of the league in terms of turnover differential, which always leaves the risk of defensive scoring plays. Through 11 weeks, Jacksonville ranks 31st with a -12 differential, while Atlanta ranks 30th with a -8 mark. Without defensive scoring plays, however, these offenses will still need to find a way to put the ball into the end zone. Based on what we’ve seen from both sides recently, I’m betting more often than not that won’t be the case.
I’m hitting the under in this one at the current mark and would be comfortable playing it down to the 44.5 mark if the line continues to fall prior to kickoff.
Pick: Under 45.5 | Bet to: 44.5
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