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NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert’s Biggest Edges Are Jags-Jets Spread, Chargers-Texans & Bills-Pats Totals

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert’s Biggest Edges Are Jags-Jets Spread, Chargers-Texans & Bills-Pats Totals article feature image
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Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images. Pictured: Patriots QB Mac Jones celebrates with teammates against the Bills

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Pick
Jaguars +2 at Jets
Chargers-Texans Under 46
Bills-Patriots Under 43.5

Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings. He has a 504-399-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.


Jaguars +2 at Jets

1 p.m. ET Sunday

It feels dirty betting on the Jaguars, but I would view this as betting against the Jets if that helps. The Jets are in the midst of a COVID outbreak that puts head coach Robert Salah, two offensive linemen, John Franklin-Myers and Ashtyn Davis in danger of missing. Not to mention, Jamison Crowder is shaping up to be a game-time decision with a calf injury. His loss would be devastating to the offense considering they are already down Corey Davis and Elijah Moore.

The Jaguars will be without Laviska Shenault Jr. and Josh Allen, pretty significant blows on both sides of the ball. However, I’m still projecting the Jags as slight 1.5-point favorites. The market overreacted to Urban Meyer’s firing last week, betting up the Jags an extra one or two points after the news. It’ll be more of a long-term improvement instead of a quick fix, but maybe we see the Jags step up here against an equally bad Jets team.


Chargers-Texans Under 46

1 p.m. ET Sunday

Both teams have key players on the COVID list heading into Week 16. The Chargers could be without Austin Ekeler, Corey Linsley, Jalen Guyton and Joey Bosa. Ekeler and/or Linsley would be huge losses for the offense and Bosa would be a massive loss for the defense. Even without having to face Bosa, I’m not sure how the Texans will be able to put up points without their stud wideout in Brandin Cooks and four of their starting offensive lineman, who are on the COVID list as well.

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley has been the most aggressive coach in terms of going for it on fourth down. I would imagine he will dial back the aggressiveness against a Texans team L.A. should beat with ease. All signs point to this being lower scoring than the market suggests. I’m projecting this closer to 44.5 and would bet it down to 45.5.


Bills-Pats Under 43.5

1 p.m. ET Sunday

While I expect the scoring environment for this matchup to be much better than their 14-10, extreme winds battle in Week 13, I feel this total is too high. The Bills will be without wideouts Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. Emmanuel Sanders will play through a knee injury. It’s going to be that much easier for Bill Belichick to game plan around taking away Josh Allen’s favorite target in Stefon Diggs.

On the Patriots side of the ball, they have similar injury concerns to their WR depth as the statuses of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and N’Keal Harry are up in the air. The Pats aren’t a team that’s equipped to take advantage of a Tre’Davious White-less Bills secondary. In fact, both defenses are relatively healthy and I think we see a run-heavy defensive battle between the top two defenses in DVOA. I’m projecting this closer to 41.5 and would bet it down to 42.5.

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