NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: How Experts Are Betting Raiders-Broncos Spread, First-Half Under For Late Sunday
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Raiders QB Derek Carr
- Based on the latest NFL odds, what are the top picks for Sunday's late afternoon games?
- Our experts break down two ways they're betting Raiders-Broncos, featuring the spread and first-half total.
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Raheem Palmer: Much of this handicap has to do with the downgrade from Teddy Bridgewater to Drew Lock, who had 17 touchdowns to 17 interceptions in 13 games last season. He’s a significant downgrade as he was 33rd in adjusted completion percentage on short passes and had the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays in 2020.
Denzel Perryman is back in the lineup for the Raiders, so they should be able to slow down this Broncos offense.
The Raiders have struggled offensively since Jon Gruden’s resignation and dropping Henry Ruggs III. Still, the last time these teams met the week after Gruden’s departure, the Raiders won 34-24 with Derek Carr completing 18 passes for 341 yards in one of his more dominant performances of the season. I’m willing to bet on a similar result here.
Broncos at Raiders
Chris Raybon: I’m also on the Raiders (down to -2).
As bad as they’ve been without Ruggs – and more recently, without Darren Waller as well – they should not be laying points at home against a team quarterbacked by Lock.
Bridgewater (out) posted a 94.9 passer rating and 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt this season. With a similar supporting cast last season in 13 starts, Lock managed a 75.4 rating and 5.8 AYA – not to mention a 59.1 rating and 3.9 AYA on 40 attempts this season. In Bridgewater, the Broncos are losing a quarterback who was 24-6 (80%) against the spread (ATS) on the road and 42-21 (67%) ATS overall.
I fully expect the Raiders to beat the Broncos as an underdog for the second time this season.
The first-half under is my favorite bet, though. Broncos’ first-half unders are 18-4 on the road since Vic Fangio took over, including 5-1 this season and 8-1 in Lock’s career, per our Action Labs data. The Broncos’ first-half scores this season are 17, 17, 23, 10, 16 and 0.
I wouldn’t bet the first-half under at any line lower than 20 points, but I like it there to -125.
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