NFL PRO Report Picks: How Sharps Are Betting Sunday’s Week 1 Games
Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images. Pictured: Mitchell Trubisky #10 of the Chicago Bears
With the sports world pausing through the spring and summer due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a lack of preseason games, it seems like the 2020 NFL regular season snuck up on us.
But after Thursday night’s Texans vs. Chiefs season-opening game, Week 1 is officially underway!
Due to the unusual summer sports calendar and start of the professional football season, many bettors may not have paid as close attention as normal to betting market activity, like odds and systems, leading up to Sunday’s games.
While the sports world was largely paused, The Action Network was hard at work developing new software, tools and features to help bettors pinpoint games offering the most actionable edges.
One of these features, the NFL PRO Report, is perfect for quickly and efficiently detailing which matchups are attracting the following factors: Sharp Action, Big Money, Pro Systems, Model Projection edges and Expert Picks.
Using the PRO Report, let’s dive into which NFL Week 1 games are offering value right now, including:
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
NFL Week 1 PRO Report Betting Picks
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington
We often talk about the importance of key numbers in NFL spread betting, and this game provides a perfect example of how sharps bet numbers, not teams.
Since the NFL moved extra-point attempts back to the 15-yard line prior to the start of the 2015 season, six points is now the third-most common margin of victory in NFL games at 7.25%.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which track and report sharp betting action in real time, have triggered five smart money indicators on Washington, and none were at the current number of +5.5.
In addition, The Action Network’s NFL public betting data reveals that while Washington is attracting just 34% of spread tickets, those bets account for 56% of the money.
With both the Sharp Action and Big Money indicators illuminated in the PRO Report, it’s easy to see why this line has dropped from its opener of +6.5 through the key number of +6 and down to +5.5 at Parx at most sportsbooks across the market.
PRO Report Angle: Washington (moved from +6.5 to +5.5) [Bet now at Parx and get a 20% profit boost + a $500 risk-free bet on your first wager.]
Link your Parx and Action accounts so your Eagles bets automatically sync over to the app.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
The Bears vs. Lions total peaked at 44.5 at FanDuel and has fallen to 42.5 at the time of writing.
Kenny Golladay’s doubtful status certainly makes a lower-scoring game more enticing, so it’s no surprise to see large-sized wagers from respected bettors hitting (and moving) this total.
SI’s Bet Signals are reporting two steam moves on the under, which mark two unique instances of market-moving money coming in on that side of the total.
Couple those with 86% of the overall money, on just 50% of the bets, landing on the under and we can easily see where oddsmakers’ liability resides with this game.
PRO Report Angle: Under (moved from 44.5 to 42.5) [Bet now at PointsBet, which is now live in Illinois!]
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
This game is not only interesting for fans and casual bettors, but it’s also attracting plenty of attention from sharps, and for good reason.
While 63% of tickets are laying the price with the Seahawks, big bets from professionals have landed the Falcons, setting up a clear sharps vs. squares showdown.
Additionally, the PRO Report’s Model Projections peg this true line at Seattle -0.5. Considering there are still a few sportsbooks, like DraftKings, hanging Atlanta +3, it’s hard to deny why wiseguys see so much value on the Falcons.
With that said, please be sure to shop for the best line and ensure you grab the full field goal if you plan on tailing this play.
Nearly 15% of all NFL games since 2003 have finished with a margin of victory of three points, so it’s very much worth visiting our NFL Live Odds page and taking 30 seconds to lock in that always-important key number.
PRO Report Angle: Falcons (+3) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]