The 2025 NFL season begins in a few days, so now is the time to lock in some last-minute futures bets.
Today, I'm diving into an NFL parlay that features my three favorite teams to win their division: the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans.
Admittedly these are not the most exciting picks, but they're all close to even odds and I don't think they should be close to that.
In the AFC West, I'm down on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers — that makes me feel much better about the Chiefs than I expected.
I don't love the options in the NFC East. I've talked about why I'm out on the Washington Commanders; that makes the Eagles look pretty good. And I've given the Texans a lot of love in a number spaces over the last month. I like the Eagles, Chiefs and Texans as standalone bets at +110 to -130. I have these teams anywhere from 70%-85% percent to win their division, which is a huge number this early.
But I'm not stopping there as I'm parlaying all three together at FanDuel at +633. By those odds, that would imply a 14% hit rate.
But by my division odds, I have this parlay better than a coin flip to hit.
NFL Parlay, Division Winner Picks
Houston Texans — AFC South
Philadelphia Eagles — NFC East
Kansas City Chiefs — AFC West
So with the Texans, you can bet them at ESPN Bet to go 6-0 in the division at 13-to-1 odds. That is a bet on the Texans and a bet against the other three teams in the division.
I've talked a lot about why the AFC South (and NFC South) are so bad. What ended up happening for me is I agree on seven of those teams being bad, but I ended up really liking the Texans and their floor. I think the Texans are in the mix for top AFC seeding and maybe even the one seed.
This should be one of the league's best defenses and special teams, and if new OC Nick Caley finds some answers on the offensive line and gets C.J. Stroud into a groove again, the offense could surprise. Houston has a higher floor than it seems, well ahead of the rest of the division.
In the AFC West, I like a lot of what the Las Vegas Raiders are doing. They got a big-time head coach in Pete Carroll and a legitimate quarterback in Geno Smith — that raises their floor.
But still, the defense could be really bad — like potentially one of the worst in the entire league bad. Maxx Crosby can only do so much for that unit.
I don't love the Broncos this year. I don't believe in the offense, and I think the defense is going to be worse, not better. And I really don't like the Chargers after the Rashawn Slater injury. All of that leads me the Chiefs in the AFC West.
Patrick Mahomes is still the king, and he has so much infrastructure around him with coaching, defense, and special teams that there's a clear playoff winning floor in Kansas City. I didn't expect to be so confident in the Chiefs with their issues at receiver and on the line, but it's a lack of faith in the rest of the division that makes Kansas City safe.
Lastly, the Eagles.
The Commanders look like their biggest threat in the NFC East after a shocking turnaround season last year. But Washington's defense is pretty poor, and its offense was quite fortunate last year on fourth downs and late-game heroics. You can't count on that stuff carrying over, and I'm as down on Washington as I am on any presumed contender.
The New York Giants should be decent on the defensive side of the ball, but with no viable quarterback, I don't think they have much hope.
I thought the Dallas Cowboys had a chance to surprise, but that was before trading way my Defensive Player of the Year pick in Micah Parsons. They do get Dak Prescott back, but Brian Schottenheimer was a weird hire at head coach. He's vanilla, run-heavy and doesn't even have good running backs to lean on if that's what he implements. It looks like a lost season in Dallas after trading Parsons.
I don't need to sell you on Philadelphia. We know what the Eagles are — likely among the best in the league at skill positions, offensive line, and defense — and the floor is high. The Eagles are the NFC favorites for a reason.
I have the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles all over 70% to win their watered-down divisions. That makes each of them a great standalone division bet: Houston +110, Kansas City -105, and Philadelphia -130. This is a great way to parlay three favorites together at +633.
Pick: Eagles, Chiefs, Texans Division Winner Parlay (+633; FanDuel)
