Titans vs. Bills NFL Picks Week 2: The 61.5% Against-the-Spread System for Monday Night Football
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Head Coach Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans
NFL odds for Week 2, specifically spreads, are typically misunderstood by recreational bettors.
This doesn't mean that spreads aren't sharp, but that public bettors overwhelmingly overreact to the previous week's results when making their NFL Week 2 picks.
Think about it — NFL odds for Week 1 were available since May, so bettors had all summer to make sure they "knew" these teams ahead of the start of the season.
When teams expected to be bad overperform and those projected to be playoff contenders flop in Week 1, there's a knee-jerk reaction from casual bettors to make NFL picks for Week 2 based on those results, and only those results.
But remember, it's imperative not to overreact to a one-game sample, and that's exactly how savvy bettors can pinpoint value in Week 2.
With this in mind, let's detail an NFL Week 2 betting system with a 61.5% against-the-spread (ATS) record since 2005 that takes advantage of this exact strategy.
NFL Picks for Week 2
What can be more crushing to the perception of an NFL team than losing straight up as a spread favorite in Week 1? Nobody wants to bet on these disappointments in Week 2, right?
Well, you should, because that's exactly where to find value.
NFL teams that lose straight up as favorites in Week 1 and are underdogs the following game are 32-20-2 (61.5%) ATS in Week 2 over the past 17 seasons.
This certainly isn't the easiest NFL betting strategy to get behind, but it does make sense that the market will undervalue teams that came out flat in Week 1, even though there's still a long season ahead.
Here are the teams that fit this system ahead of this weekend's NFL Week 2 games:
- Panthers (+2) at Giants
- Titans (+10) at Bills